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LYC 4.3¢

what catalyst is needed to move lynas up/down

  1. antibotter

    4,080 posts.

    A sell by Deutsche bank on Lynas Corportation has certainly not been the catalyst to move the share price

    The volume today is quite mediocre so far

    As quarterly announcement is so close, based on previous volatility one would expect the share price to gain momentum

    There have been several price movements/surges - both ways on the previous 8 months

    If my memory serves me correctly

    55 - 74

    48 - 70

    35 - 48

    It is not about value, but history repeating itself over and over again

    This upcoming report will certainly determine the direction for Lynas shares short term

    Risk/reward is currently the name of the game

    As can be seen by the above figures a 40 percent swing has occured in most cases

    The above is only my opinion and should not be construed as investment advice

  2. Maybe with a new CEO the leaks have been plugged.
    I guess we will find out by this time next week.

  3. bikemad

    574 posts.

    I'm not a technical trader but I watch price action closely and the dummy buy orders that are pulled before they are executed and the dummy sell orders put in to intimidate are considerably more jumpy today. Shorts are looking for sucker money at this stage in my opinion. I am buying more here. I am not leveraged and I am not easily intimidated. This is just my observation and strategy and not buy advice.

  4. ausheds

    9,106 posts.

    H'mmm, not so sure there will be anything in this Q report to move the SP.
    More likely it will trade on the perceived success, or otherwise, of the Baotou Trading Platform. Can China re-establish some pricing confidence, and contain smuggling, to reveal the latent demand in the industry?

  5. lei88

    1,641 posts.

    China's first rare earth products trading platform has long been set up on 8/8/2012 in Baotou City.the most 10 of China's important rare earth enterprises have participated in this trading platform, So far nearly one year but still not stable the rare earth prices.

    indeed any trading platform can conducive to consolidation of rare earth industry, but can't solve the fundamental problem, so don't have a high expectation.

  6. ausheds

    9,106 posts.

    Lei, check your facts. It was announced last year but not activated, and is yet to operate.

    Obviously the centrally planned economy decided they needed a little central planning to give it any chance of success given the mess they'd created in their "ME has oil, China has RE" industry.

    Hence the last 12 months have seen production shutdowns, massive consolidations, crackdown on smuggling/illegal internal production and even a little Central v City State jousting (they own big chunks of southern producers).

    Having made best efforts to get their house in order the Baotou Trading Platform is due to start operation 2nd week August at the Baotou RE conference. Rumours a second round of buying for the national stockpile will also be announced.

    Why do I constantly have to repeat this information?
    Or why do people continually post poorly or non researched misinformation?

    "From August 7 to August 9, the Fifth Baotou China Rare Earth Industry Forum will be held in Baotou. According to the agenda, the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange has decided to announce the definitive rules and system for its new rare earth spot trading platform at the Baotou Rare Earth Forum. This suggests that China’s rare earth products exchange will ‘formalize’ production after August 2013."

    "I think that the successful trading platform will help to establish justifiable and transparent prices while also contributing to China’s rare earth market stability. Nevertheless, China’s rare earth industry is slumping as reflected by poor sales and a sharp drop in demand. There are other serious issues needing to be resolved. These include illegal rare earth mining, producing, trading and smuggling, which are plaguing China’s rare earths market. It will also impact the rare earth spot trading platform. For this reason, I believe that serious challenges are lurking behind China’s first rare earth products exchange."


  7. mitta

    15,469 posts.

    Someone spilt the coffee and the shareprice just moved a tad hehe

  8. Hehehhh itchy fingers!!

  9. mitta

    15,469 posts.

    That little blast of up volume was abt 3.5M in size which btw is the biggest since they smacked you over the head with their selling early last Friday morning, now we wonder what are the little devils up to

  10. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

  11. ML173

    4,247 posts.

    One of the only few stocks going up today!!

    Must be those damn shorters ran for their shorts:)

  12. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    BBG also still going up today, great stock to trade:)))

  13. Fezza333

    514 posts.

    No catalyst...The Lynas share price is clearly governed by RORKES LAW, i.e.

    SP = A*RE Price, where A is a constant :)

  14. lei88

    1,641 posts.

    Baotou Rare Earth Trading Platform has been carried out exchanges between trading members, Also hoping that more members to participate in this Trading Platform ,and now Only "formal operation of electronic platform"(new Spot Trading Platform) will take time.

    the outside is not very optimistic to the operation of this electronic platform:

    As a rule, this trading platform can only carry out "spot trading", in the absence of the commodity forward transactions, forward transactions in the commodities market management, warehouse transactions,etc, because the the guiding role of spot market price is far less than the futures market, So this trading platform role whether in stabilizing prices that remains to be seen.

    "If the upstream and downstream enterprises don't like it,
    still extend the past traditional distributed transactions, this platform is also very difficult to play the role of an ideal, this trading platform can solve some problemto about sell side, but the problem of production capacity still exists. " China's National Development and Reform Commission, Researcher Wang Yuan Jing said.

    set up a Rare earths futures market(not only Spot market) will be the most important reform.

  15. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    LYC SP is looking real good for a decent move up next week as as long as the RE price maintains its upward movement....will report back in prior to the opne on Monday.

    I now have that feeling these price levels in 3 months time will be looked back on as "why didn't I hold or buy at 0.435"


  16. the catalyst required to move this company up is good production and sales figures. simple.

  17. just to throw some more variables into rorkes 1st law of LYC SP / REE leaders index correlation:

    the recent period is one of the longest rises/recoveries in the REE leaders index over the last 9 months.

    this suggests that we are moving away from a blip in the downward trend to a possible reversal.

  18. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    Anitbotter "There have been several price movements/surges - both ways on the previous 8 months"

    If my memory serves me correctly

    55 - 74

    48 - 70

    35 - 48

    You forgot

    59 - 95 (Sep. 2012 TOL ANNC.)

    1.30 1.60 (Feb. 2012)


    0.415 to 0.685 in the next few weeks..IMO

  19. Tremeer

    1,004 posts.

    Rorkes, I can't wait for the POL announcement...and the positive impact I know it will have on the SP!



  20. andy bee

    1,175 posts.

    rorkes ,, I am tipping .45 to.68 at the ann unless many ticks happen,, but the silence from management and - or leaks is very disheartening methinks

  21. hey mitta3,

    but you have to admit that rorkes was on the money with his predictions over the last few days.

    Go REE Go!

  22. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    This is flying


    1,531 posts.

    Given materials sector is down.... we are doing well...IF...IF....IF... we close at 45 or above this is a bullish signal.....

  24. moper

    90 posts.

    Hey FM, I'd like to know your reading of this... are you in yet, or still waiting for your low risk entry.



    1,531 posts.

    The after market auction will be very very interesting....and will paint a picture...IMO.... leading into next week...Comon LYNAS...Comon...

  26. daclaw

    539 posts.

    Baotou still heading down.

    Sold the small parcel I bought a couple of days ago, I think it'll go back to test 41.5 - 42c next week before heading higher...

    time for Friday night shenanigans!

  27. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    Come on Lynas Come on Come on, Come On Lynas Come On Come On!!


    1,531 posts.

    UP 7.25% on a overall down day....closed at 44.5 ...not quite the 45+ i was hoping for...massive week next week...Go Lynas..Comon....

  29. RVR

    2,447 posts.

    And looks like about 45 trades and half a million hares traded after e close at .445.....

  30. LOL Senaris, you sound like you're having a go at the GGs...

    Oh, wait this is the ASX... lol, carry on.


  31. lorrett

    730 posts.

    Today's jump in the SP may be due to someone having "the inside running" in regards to the forthcoming quarterly???

    GL all -

  32. bsumisu

    1,909 posts.

    Lorett i am mote inclined to agree with mitta's asessment that someone spilled their coffee. Lynas goes up 10% on no news and people say insider info, down 10% they say its manipulation.

    I think its a tug of war between upwsrds and downward forces, with what seems like a turnaround on ree pricing which is the primary volatility driver.

  33. efed

    231 posts.

    Not enough new supply beneath these levels, so they need to move it to a level where fresh supply is found.

    Big boys & their toys.

    Playing with the little folk like 6th graders.

    There definitely seems to be a change in momentum, but my thoughts are because there was not enough supply at these levels. They could turn the tide again so tread carefully. A steady increase is much preferred, big jumps can easily be followed with big fall.

    Not advice.

  34. antibotter

    4,080 posts.


    Thanks for your positive constructive criticism on my new thread not
    As always much appreciated

  35. Frog Spinach

    1,228 posts.

    just hope all you long termers have bought as much as you can below 50 cents

    make no mistake LYC will be the new standard in rare earths

  36. Funkymonk63

    4,594 posts.

    Nope not in atm Moper was away from the computer all day today, had a brief 2 day flirtation last week though :)

    Will assess next week


  37. hbunton

    2,587 posts.

    People talk of supply...ATM there are only their own shares and those retailers that are now too tired to hold.
    If news improves etc etc and suddenly an income stream is proven then the bigger money...Super etc will get involved ..That my friends is when supply really starts to dry up.
    The meek of heart can then offload for a few cents per share profit and leave to fixed rate or whatever.
    LYC must be seen to be as much as any a serious provider of returns.
    This wont be for another year. The positive news will see same games but at small incremental levels increase in SP.

    Remember if there was no hope there wouldnt be so many interested parties on this forum having a negative stance...

  38. omgwen3rds

    3,236 posts.

    My attitude is that some of Lynas biggest haters are actually the biggest fans with the huge amount of effort and research they do into the company not to mention the amount the posts they do about the company. Shows to me the are passionate about the company and actually closet supporters deep down.

  39. hbunton

    2,587 posts.

    True OMG The level of effort in a company/industry that the "uninterested" show is extraordinary and way into the professional level.

    Remember people do everything for a personal reason.
    Like President Lincoln though..altruism (especially here..)...hmmmmph!

  40. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    As mentioned below I said I would report in Monday,

    THE BIG NEWS IS RE PRICE IS UP GAIN and you know what that means, the SP will move up again today , in fact it could breal through that resistance at 0.48....IMO Hey Mitta what do you reckon is going to happen today???

    LYC SP is looking real good for a decent move up next week as as long as the RE price maintains its upward movement....will report back in prior to the open on Monday.

    I now have that feeling these price levels in 3 months time will be looked back on as "why didn't I hold or buy at 0.435"

  41. rorkes

    2,319 posts.

    Currently BUY ORDER 3,000,000 shares at 0.485

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