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"“(About) 75 per cent of the existing thermal plant has passed...

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    "“(About) 75 per cent of the existing thermal plant has passed its useful life,” AGL Energy economists say in a new research paper. But they note that the generator owners do not want to shut them down because it is too expensive to do so. “At present, there is around 7 GW of surplus capacity in the NEM. The system is relying upon ageing baseload coal-fired generation.”"

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/aus...roblem-too-many-useless-coal-generators-12476

    So over the next fifteen years the chances are that this 75% will be finally shut down and replaced with ....

    "A new analysis from research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance has concluded that electricity from unsubsidised renewable energy is already cheaper than electricity from new-build coal and gas-fired power stations in Australia."

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in-australia-62268
 
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