UNS 0.00% 0.5¢ unilife corporation

You're up early, Rusty! I'm surprised the change in short...

  1. 5,513 Posts.
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    You're up early, Rusty!

    I'm surprised the change in short sentiment hasn't received wider discussion. Not to worry, it's being noticed where it counts. Another good day overnight. The past couple of weeks they tried to get it down to the CR price, and couldn't. The fact that the instos continue building already meaningful positions is another positive signal. Would be good if they could just sit on them for once, and go for the ride. Nice to clip the ticket, but the margin is insignificant compared to the longer term gains on offer. Then again, the more shorts on the hook the better when the hockey stick kicks in! The pending deal with AbbVie, will, IMO, be a pivotal event, arguably more influential than Sanofi.

    One could even argue that it will be a black swan event:

    "A Black Swan event is an event in human history - or a company's history - that is unprecedented and unexpected at the point in time it occurs. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: “it was bound to happen”. Even though some parameters may differ (such as the event’s time, location, or specific type), it is likely that similar incidences have had similar effects in the past.

    "The term Black Swan originates from the Western belief that all swans were white because these were the only ones accounted for. However, in 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia. This was an unexpected event in scientific history and profoundly changed zoology. After the black swan were discoverd, it seemed obvious that black swans had to exist just as other animals with varying colors were known to exist as well. In retrospect, the surrounding context (i.e., the observations about other animals) seemed to imply the Black Swan assumption – empirical evidence validated it."

    IMO, Unilife's ultimate success is "bound to happen....because after evaluating the surrounding context...the empirical data validates it."

    I this respect, at the moment I think some people are accounting only for the things they can see about Unilife, yet I believe there are several black swans gliding gracefully around in the background, hidden in plain view, just biding their time waiting to be "discovered".

    Funny that they were first discovered in Australia!

    Hindsight is always 20:20, but foresight sure is a trick.

    Happy Days
    Last edited by writer: 27/02/15
 
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