GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

@six20aus you need to sort your own sock. but for what it is...

  1. 9,759 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3460
    @six20aus

    you need to sort your own sock. but for what it is worth my approach is to bet gold on its own merits
    ie outlook for real interest rates, growing or receding view of fiat and system risk but dont assume an event will occur. gold's trend isnt set by once in a blue moon catalysts. if you are holding you are exposed to the trend. understand it and bet accordingly

    my posts of yesterday cover a fair bit of detail on what drives gold trend pricing
    that might be worth a read

    but re crashes - understand that gold really isnt responding to equities at all for the most part - but to bonds. only in event of big volatility does gold get a sideways bid from equity money

    - gold fell in 2008 equity crash but rose in 2001 crash. the reasons are to do with both covering losses (a factor in all events, how widespread gold is held, and is it a normal or abnormal economic envoironment the crash is occurring in, and why were people buying/not buying gold leading into the event).

    in 2001 no one had been buying gold for 6 years - so gold rose as a risk hedge bet and that then flipped into falling usd which drove commodity spike driving inflation.

    in 2008 gold was widely held in diversified portfolios because world inflation risk was seen as rising up to the crash - so gold was being bought up but as an inflation hedge - so when the crash came inflation was seen as dropping so gold was sold to cover losses and because inflation was no longer a threat) .

    Now - my view is any equity crash will revive fears about growth - particularly in US as largest equity market - and because US debt is so crippling the readthrough will be for gold to rise.

    whereas if US and global debt was normal levels gold would get sold through the floor.

    - however - whats much more challenging and harder to assess is what if there is a bond market crash?
    thats something that hasnt occurred globally for over 50 years,. You will see it in falling equity prices.
    But a bond event is a much bigger and far reaching event.

    ill leave you to form your own thoughts on that
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add GOLD (COMEX) to my watchlist
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.