SHV 2.30% $4.45 select harvests limited

I was lucky enough to exit a decent chunk (60%) of my SHV...

  1. 818 Posts.
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    I was lucky enough to exit a decent chunk (60%) of my SHV holdings at prices above $10 but at these prices it's starting to look REALLY tempting to begin accumulating again.

    I think the negatives are beginning to oversell the stock.

    The weather is going to do what the weather is going to do, I think if you are investing in like ag companies you've gotta be willing to take the good years with the bad.

    At present SHV isn't in drought and does have access to water if rainfall was to be less than expected in future years.

    Yes commodities around the world are falling (and yes they may fall further), but we are probably closer to the bottom now than we are the beginning, because we are starting to see the defaults increase and supply in many different commodities is being beginning to be removed...

    That said, the default process may cause temporary hiccups in the financial system (which might hit stocks further), but the important thing to keep in context is that the world will move on and people will still need food.

    On top of that the AUD has helped (and willy likely continue to) insulate Australia from the worst of the commodity price falls. If anything most Australian produced ag commodities have held up reasonably well when priced in AUD terms.

    The way I look at SHV is like an inflation protected, high yielding, but volatile bond...

    Because at the end of the day, it's mostly just a farm producing a food commodity.

    It should be the sort of company, if reasonably run, that you can buy at the right price and park it in a drawer, come back in 10 years time and it will have made a return better than cash or bonds.

    The cashflow that the farm produces has been pretty consistent (for an ag company) and for the last decade and it's paid a dividend every year (averaging about $0.28) while earning an average of $0.45 BEFORE adjusting for inflation.

    So at these price levels if you ignore what this year's earnings are going to be and just look at the average dividend yield of 5.8% and a 9.4% earnings yield compared to a 10 year Australian bond of 2.6% which isn't protected against inflation...

    So at these prices even if there is some sort term negative news as a medium to long term investment it seems like a no brainer to me...

    That said, I'm no hero. And my portfolio budget for a company like SHV ain't going to change the momentum of this stock. So until the big boys are finished dumping/shorting stock I'll have to wait patiently, but the lower it goes the better value it is from here.

    I'm not sure what the shorters are hunting for or betting on, maybe a non-cash asset impairment/write-down due to the almond price falls?

    Maybe they think if they push hard enough it will get bumped out of the ASX200 and fund managers and ETFs will have to dump it?

    Who knows and in the long term I doubt it will matter.

    I still own SHV and I hope it goes lower because I've got every intention of buying more soon.

    GLTA
 
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Last
$4.45
Change
0.100(2.30%)
Mkt cap ! $538.7M
Open High Low Value Volume
$4.35 $4.51 $4.32 $1.814M 409.4K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 173 $4.42
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$4.45 5000 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 29/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
$4.42
  Change
0.100 ( 1.74 %)
Open High Low Volume
$4.38 $4.51 $4.31 45009
Last updated 15.59pm 29/03/2024 ?
SHV (ASX) Chart
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