Finally some good news on the oil front.
It looks like a balance has been found with oil at around $60 dollars for WTI crude (well, oil does have elastic demand after all). Refer to chart below.
And with the withdrawn "Rigs" effect, yet to kick in and the current Middle East problems.
Price should recover a bit more towards the end of the year .
For our stars to align, we need good news on PS 1 and/or ROC.
1. Oil
The supply glut caused by US shale production and OPEC’s refusal to cut back to compensate, which led to a fall last year from $US107 to $US44 in six months, has disappeared. The market is back in balance and the price has been holding at around $US60 a barrel for two months, having surged in March and April, but the risk from here is that it rises some more.
This graph from RBC Capital Markets shows what has happened: a massive surge in demand, and a small drop in supply.
Source: RBC
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Oil Demand and supply is balanced
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