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CTR 0.1¢

nice buy@2.0c

  1. Lani62

    5,546 posts.

  2. Lani62

    5,546 posts.

  3. oilman01

    3,035 posts.

    This study leads to the Mexico-Guatemala cross border joint exploration agreement signed recently.

    http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3069/FS12-3069.pdf

    And Atzam is surrounded by new exploration blocks (taken in the last bidding round).

    http://licitaciones.mem.gob.gt/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Terms-of-Reference.pdf

  4. luckydog

    4,885 posts.

    still also a nice sell unfortunately!

  5. oilman01

    3,035 posts.

    Also in the Guatemala acreage releases, the two areas next to Atzam are the only two that are required to drill well (direct exploration). The rest can be just stopped at surface mapping and if decided not prospective no well need to be drilled.

  6. portsea7

    822 posts.

    Some good info to research oilman nice work

  7. machsa

    110 posts.

    I agree glad to have you onboard oily ...buy side increasing a bit also !

  8. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    Starting to make me wonder if whoever was selling has run out of stock.

    Normally 1.9c would be gone pretty quick.

    Like I keep saying, they have to run out at some point, they can't just fabricate stock out of thin air.

  9. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Freeway can they borrow stock from the company doing the capital raising.seems to be games being played.

  10. Drumo

    987 posts.

    Yeah the 0.019's were good while they lasted,still cheap at 0.20 IMHO

  11. sydney6791

    3,012 posts.

    Honestly I donot care the current SP either 1.8c 2c or 2.3c, once production kicks off, SP will 100%sure above 4c.

  12. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    They can borrow from the most likely stakeholder in who's interest it is to keep the price low IMO.
    Stakeholders do not want to do this themselves and commission other entities specialised in this, who can keep turning the stock over for a long time, while making money in the mean time.
    The MM's on AIM are experts in this. It is like day trading with yourself and in the process getting the few retail holders who are trading with them shafted.

  13. garrry

    518 posts.

    This thing is just about to explode!!! Bang

  14. delux73

    757 posts.

    Desperately trying to keep it at or below the magic 2c number!

    It may have something to do with the 7c oppies expiring end of the month.
    If this was allowed to run as it should have over the last 6 weeks they could well be in the money with the next announcements thus hindering the coming cap raise.

    I'm expecting a big week next week- they would need the contract with offtake partner before flow rates because of storage issues.

    Short term off take deal is likely first...previously Quetzal sold production from atzam #2 trucked to power stations in excess of WTI +$20 a barrel.

    Reserve upgrade and flow rates by the end of month.

    Hopefully this will be the last time we see the 2c police.

    GLTA










  15. Hans Brix

    2,853 posts.

    ann monday fo sho

  16. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    "They can borrow from the most likely stakeholder in who's interest it is to keep the price low IMO."


    soj88 can you please explain how this works?

    I was of the opinon that there is only so much stock via the appendix 3B and whatever that number is how much is "out there" to be traded with.

    I don't follow what you mean.

  17. dmasive

    1,079 posts.

    Games begin
    Lets watch this being pushed up
    Over next week or so.

  18. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Borrowed stock has to be bought back eventually, to return to the stakeholder.
    This happens for instance if someone would like to short the stock concerned.
    It does not stop them, however to keep churning this stock over and over again and in doing so, money can be made by trading on low margins and cream of some money from retail investors.
    You need to have a decent chunk of stock available to you, in order to do this and not being gazumped by others.
    I would think, that 20 million or more could do the job.
    Look at how many were stacked over the last week or so.
    Now, who has that kind of shares?

    Interesting to see, what their behaviour will be if a very positive announcement is about to be released. Will they retreat a day before, or will they put the screws tighter at that point?
    How many times does one see a fantastic announcement being released, followed by a nice short run up for a day, maybe two and than see it all vaporise again as were we started.
    I hope their strategy is interrupted with a flood of buying, when such announcement made.

  19. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    So basically you're suggesting that someone is short selling it?

  20. dmasive

    1,079 posts.

    Don't think you can short this stock

  21. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Freeway,

    Yes and the reason they do not run out of shares as some suggested, is that they buy back repeatedly ate the lowest price possible.
    A margin of 0.2 cents is all they need.

  22. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    I didn't think so either.

    So how can this happen?

    How does someone borrow stock to sell onto the market without first buying it outright?

    I still don't understand but feel it's important to know how this can happen just for my general knowledge.

  23. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    So this stock CAN be shorted then?

    So then there has to be a short "covering" at some point then?

  24. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    dmassive, perhaps us retail holders are barred from that from some brooking houses, that does not stop a broker or hedge fund or any other wholesale participant to do this.

  25. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Freeway,

    As I said before and you are right, the stock has to be bought back eventually.

    That's why I like to see what will happen a day before a very positive announcement is due.

  26. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    Ok no problems.

    Where there's a push, there's a pull.

    If it is in fact being shorted and we are only speculating same. We really don't know.

  27. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Agree, we do not know for sure, but it start to look as it is likely.
    I am not claiming to know all, just trying to make some sense and my scenario is one which could be as valid as any other I have heard so far on this stock.

  28. big mahn

    4,491 posts.

    It's not being shorted. Go to the asic website and pull up the latest short position report. There are no short positions for Citation.... next theory...
    Just looks like churning to me

  29. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Just to add, before I like to stop about this subject, is Kev's comments on WS, a few minutes ago:

    Re: Nugaal in dispute
    19 Jul 2013, 17:20
    Whatever Ivan thinks I see CTR as part of the Range fold, it may not happen overnight and it'll be done in such a way to delay the requirements for a formal take over as long as possible. But given the affiliations and men behind the game I'm as sure as I can be not only will Guat be a Range asset (as PL actually wanted from day one but was advised to go along the third party route) it'll also become the vehicle by which we see the Puntland assets monetised, ala AOI and Horn Petroleum, with a eventual in specie transfer of the stock to Range holders.

    Negotiations In Russia will have a large bearing on timings for all this though IMO so we should get more of a feel for timing in the next few weeks. It's just a case of positioning oneself at in preparation for the good times.

    Just to really throw things into the melting pot I'd say it's not inconceivable exposure could be increased in Puntland with the absorption of another sister company once the board find themselves with a positive cash balance regular positive cashflow and the Puntland assets undervalued.

    Kev

  30. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    Absolutely Soj88, I wasn't suggesting that your idea is any worse than anyone elses, just making sure that everyone knows it's speculation.

    All good mate, value your input.

  31. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Big Mahn,

    Believe what you want to believe.
    There are more ways to skin a cat.

  32. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    Sorry if I'm being daft here soj88 but who is Kev and what is WS?

  33. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    WS is world -
    http://www.worldstocks.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4327#unread
    - and Kev is Kev York.
    He seams to have a direct line with one of the Range directors.
    Kev is a long term holder, with a 2 to 3 year horizon for Range. He has been to Trinidad for a few weeks, to see for himself what is going on there and made in the process good contacts over there.
    As far as I know, he has never volunteered any insider knowledge, but relays from time to time what he has been told when he had contact with management.
    Some do not believe he is sincere, while the majority thinks the reverse.
    Who knows, I never invest on what I hear on the boards, but use it to shape my own research and opinion.

  34. delux73

    757 posts.

    Freeway..
    Kev is Ranges biggest flag flyer on world stocks (WS) and claims to have a direct bat phone to the lord and master of Range (PL)
    Had you followed Kev's advice over the last 12 months and brought Range you would be in deep sh#@ right about now.

    CTR was on offer for the grand ol price of around 5 mil two months ago why wait until it's worth many more mill's after proved reserves are re-rated?

    That great range debate continues......














  35. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    So Kev's pretty much some guy off the boards who has a large holding in Range.

    Right.

    I don't let stuff like that sway my investments, but it's nice to know what different holders think of the situation.

    Could be a bit of wishfull thinking I think.

  36. trade4profit

    15,202 posts.

    Tell me this...

    If stock is sold on-market (short, borrowed, real shares - doesn't matter) and pushes the price down in the process...

    But then all this stock is bought back off-market, how is the initial impact of the selling ever reversed?

    Fact is it isn't...

    This is a pattern that repeats across all stocks in the market and leads to general price and value stripping from the many for the benefit of a few.

    Think it through...

    Cheers!

  37. soj88

    1,225 posts.

    Thanks Trade4profit, you explained it much better than I did.

    Once you realise, that the stock market is a place were the pro's are mixing it with us shareholders, you come to the conclusion, that it is better to work with them than trying to beat them.

  38. TBE

    3,733 posts.

    T4P - well said.

    I've been going on about this for a while now.

    Shortselling distorts the market by delaying one side of the transaction - the buy.

    It creates the impression there are more sellers than there actually are because the obligation to buy back is not presented to the market in real time.

    When the market sentiment is negative, this can exaggerate the downturn, leading to much greater volatility removed from any fundamental relationship with the stock's business or even demand/supply.

    It's a rort.

  39. Freeway

    2,355 posts.

    Hey, you don't have to convince me TFP...

    I can't understand why short selling was ever allowed into the market.

    But if the stock rallies, won't whoever borrowed the stock lose a lot of money when they have to buy it back?

  40. Pullback has been because there is a capital raising coming as per the statements made at the general meeting. Raising could be at a fairly hefty discount based on 5 day WAP. Check out the details as they have been stated by management. One of the likely brokers for this is Patersons and the SIs there will insist on a discount. This is the primary reason for the fall.

    Another factor is slow implementation by management - not exactly much forward thinking or concurrent activity happening at present; ie contract for oil produced??. Remember without this 'well' the company would have been seriously floundering. So management were recently focused on other things and have been very slow to change gear. It will happen but at present it is all happening slowly and this adds to the share price uncertainty.

    Management also seems inexperienced. Will the inexperience mean that they will demand that the operator open the choke up to get a larger flow rate and then unfortanely stuff the well. Or will they keep it at half the maximum flow rate and keep it running for years. This hopefully will be decided by the operator who seems to have a better grasp of what is needed to be done. These factors all have a bearing on the share price.

    What I ask myself with these type of stocks is why the share price is so low compare to the potential. There is always a reason(s). Fools say it is because the market is misjudging the value. The market by definitions does not misjudge the value. The value will come when the facts change and/or the implementation proceeds and the risks abate.

    IMO management have no idea how to conduct a capital raising to maximise the benefit to existing shareholders. It could well be that the raising is done prior to good news. This would allow the raising to be a success and for SIs to sell into the good news when it comes. The benefit of this is that the raising will have no trouble being completed and the discount to the 5 day WAP will be far less that otherwise (20%??). The other way of doing it is to put out good news and hope the share price goes up and then have the discount.

    The share price is low for good reasons but IMO the future looks good for those who want to hold for the longer term when hopefully some of the above risks have passed.

  41. off topic ... IMO short selling alters the visual, not the reality. Even if sold short publicly on the market and covered privately off market as per T4P's method, at reporting time there remains a fixed number of shareholders, holding a fixed number if shares entitled to a set fair valuation. However, it will alter a retail holder's position if it is used to scalp 'stop lossess' ... too often a stop loss is simply a traders target, nothing more nothing less.

    on topic ... IMO CTR trading reflects the cautious uncertainty of CTR ... it could go gang busters, it might be gouged, it might fall back into the incompetent drilling basket, a clause re 70% entitlement might be defaulted, the locals might take (and demand) a greater interest etc etc etc. And this uncertainty will be endlessly fed if there is no real news ...

    IMO that uncertainty would be significantly diminished if CTR issued a definitive timetable re its activities eg :
    1 month ... commissioning of x bbls on-site storage
    2 months ... settlement y bbl off-take on the basis of a,b,c specs
    2.5 months ... conclusion all pre-drill approvals
    blah blah blah.

    now a timetable like that would IMO add 1c to the discussion dam near instantly.

    but alas ...

  42. warrenatk

    603 posts.

    Someone stated the 29th as the start of the road show.

    for a road show we need an updated investor presentation.

    This updated investor pres will included all the milestones which we are wanting right now - flow rates, est reserves.

    I think we will have a big week coming.

  43. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    I am amazed to think people would honestly believe people would bother shorting this stock.how can you short a stock when there is no volume to short it with.reality is there is currently no interest in the stock until certainty over ownership and capital raising and low rates are established.who in their right mind would be buying on market when you can participate in the capital raising at a 20% discount.why pay 2 cents on market when you can buy at 1.6 in raising.or a small amount its not a lot but if you were to buy 100/200 k in raising its a substantial amount.is only logical to sell on market and buy in raising.good luck with the shorting theory as there is no stock to short.

  44. trade4profit

    15,202 posts.

    Malmoe...

    I'll respond to your post...

    I am amazed to think people would honestly believe people would bother shorting this stock.

    This sort of feigned indignant dismissal of what amounts to a very common activity in the market always amuses me. Borrowed, promised, contracted...or simply held shares...sold in the knowledge of a placement kills two birds with one stone;

    1. Push price down to set lower CR price and;

    2. Realise cash via the sales with which to buy shares back off-market (via a placement) at discounted prices.

    Works best when you know what the placement price will be, or is likely to be...and works even better when you have the "support" of the Company and are guaranteed to replace the shares off-market at a price less than your average selling price...whatever that might be


    how can you short a stock when there is no volume to short it with.

    Are you serious? Look at the volumes that have traded in CTR over in recent period (the entire register in volume)...plenty of volume to facilitate the activity we are discussing.

    reality is there is currently no interest in the stock until certainty over ownership and capital raising and low rates are established.

    Plenty of interest in the stock, but it was firstly taken advantage off and more recently it has been tempered to help ensure an attractive CR price.

    Remove this manufactured impost and watch how much interest rolls in...


    who in their right mind would be buying on market when you can participate in the capital raising at a 20% discount.

    Well this assumes the "20% discount" is based on current prices...why wouldn't one assume the CR will be based on higher prices...unless of course one was aware of what the CR price is likely to be?

    why pay 2 cents on market when you can buy at 1.6 in raising.or a small amount its not a lot but if you were to buy 100/200 k in raising its a substantial amount.

    Is this the price? Do you know this? If one didn't know this then 2c would otherwise be seen as a bargain...even those hoping to take stock at 1.6c (assuming you know something we do not?) would agree with this view.

    is only logical to sell on market and buy in raising.

    Again, assumes a degree of foreknowledge...who would sell on-market at 2c if they knew the raising would be at 3c for example?

    good luck with the shorting theory as there is no stock to short.

    We finish where we begin...feigned indignant dismissal of what amounts to a very common activity in the market...

    Like I said...borrowed, promised, contracted...not all stock that is "shorted" comes from an official list.

    In fact I suspect in micro-caps like CTR, the vast majority of "short-sold" stock is never officially recorded.


    Cheers!

  45. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Pezza im not sure thats totally correct. There is quite good money to be made in this stock trading it. Long term i would agree with you. Will be several opportunities to trade it in the next 6 weeks. Just need to be fast on the sell button. Bit like a game show.

  46. P87

    4,924 posts.

    Yeah no doubt.

    It's a trading play thing, but you couldn't seriously go long on the strength of managements past performance.

  47. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Trade for profit i guess you are totally correct, but i actually trade for a profit and will continue to do so, when opportunities exist. If the stock is being shorted and you want to borrow some to short i will happily buy as many as u want to short. Market sentiment changes very quickly, could easily be 3 c plus this time next week is just the nature of the beast.
    Are you actually aware how shorting a stock works and the requirements to do so.
    I dont know the cr price and no one does its a 5 day vwap and all i was saying im happy to commit to it at the discout and the free attaching option at .04 . I am only guessing about the option but thats how they normally roll. In the mean time i am enjoying making decent returns while ctr waits for further interest and sp direction. I think you may find a few others may have done the same.

  48. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Pezza
    You cant say that here because some of the holders believe they are in the beverly hillbillies show. Overnight millionairea. Good luck to them and i hope it happens but yes you are correct managements history and industry knowledge poses uncertanity.

  49. Lani62

    5,546 posts.

  50. delux73

    757 posts.

    Excellent informative posting, the mechanisms described apply to the whole world financial markets from gold, commodities, bonds to entire countries all driven by the psychotically greedy.

    According to the discussion at the AGM (I have this rec) the CR is to take place after re-rate, flow rates and off take contract ann which will be before the investor presentation at the end of the month and beginning of Aug which only leaves 10-20 days.

    management would have to be crazy to try a CR before then especially after stating this unless the news is not good.

    You guys better buy up monday if your looking for a re-entry we could be in for a T/H.

    interesting to see a lot of buy sentiment coming in to the post.

    Cheers

  51. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Delux dont see why its not a strong buy,i would rather just buy in the cr after the uncertanities are finaliised.i dont mind paying a premium to current sp in the raising if thats where the issue is done,just a lot of games being played at present.

  52. Lani62

    5,546 posts.

  53. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Lani hate to bust your balloon but what do you expect the roadshow to do for the sp. at one this week at noosa with a lot of companies presenting 20 plus. Who is this roadshow targeting. These take time, and they should have been presenting there if they were serious imo. A lot of brokers were present and could have spread ctr story but now a roadshow with no spectators

  54. P87

    4,924 posts.

    Cap Raise at 1.5?

  55. malmoe

    2,137 posts.

    Pezza was kind of hoping it may have been high 2 s or mid 2s,1.5 wont raise the funds required for next well, and operating costs.i can see a pump coming before the next raising to increase the vwap. The project is very undervalued and reason being for the reasons you stated.

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