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LYC 4.4¢

News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas licence

  1. FNN News

    2,626 posts.



    Transcription of Finance News Network Interview with Pro-Edge Consultants CEO, Tracy Weslosky


    Lelde Smits: Hello I’m Lelde Smits for the Finance News Network and joining me today is Tracy Weslosky CEO of ProEdge Media Corporation, the

    publisher of ProEdgeWire.com. Tracy welcome to Australia and to FNN.



    Tracy Weslosky: Well thank you for having me, it’s a pleasure to be here.



    Lelde Smits: Let’s get to rare earths, why are you excited by them?



    Tracy Weslosky: I don’t think there is anybody that appreciates science and technology that cannot be excited about rare earths. If we can get a sustainable amount of production of rare earths that are outside of China, we can have a pricing mechanism that people can count on. And I cannot wait to see the new innovations and technology that occurs as a result of it.



    Lelde Smits: And what is happening in the rare earths market?



    Tracy Weslosky: Well I think another reason to be very excited about rare earths in the market in particular, is if you’ve been tracking them since the beginning of 2009, the market caps have all increased on average approximately 520 per cent. So that’s a lot to get excited about.



    Lelde Smits: And why do you believe we have seen prices rise as much as they have?



    Tracy Weslosky: Well the reason is someone woke up about four years ago and said – wow, look the Chinese currently are controlling 95 per cent of the processing and 90 per cent of the world’s control of rare earths, and there must be a reason why. And that’s because they understood they can make some serious amounts of money off of these rare earths.



    Lelde Smits: And why do you believe that investors should be getting on board the rare earths story?



    Tracy Weslosky: I think the reason why investors should be following the rare earths story, is that if you have any interest in any kind of green energy including technology applications, then you want to understand rare earths much better.



    Lelde Smits: Interesting you say that because rare earths and radioactivity are sometimes put in the same sentence. Why do you believe that people associate the two?



    Tracy Weslosky: The people that often utilise rare earths and radioactive together in the same sentence are obviously, I would argue, are misinformed. You want to put rare earths and obviously, you usually have uranium and/or thorium on the same properties. So I think it’s usually people that don’t understand rare earths properly, or do not understand uranium properly that like to use the radioactivity term.



    Lelde Smits: Looking closer at rare earths companies, who are you currently working with?

    Tracy Weslosky: Well that’s an interesting question. Currently I work with over 40 publicly listed rare earth companies, but I’m also tracking nearly 400 publicly listed companies worldwide. Additionally I have the only rare earth indexes that are calculated on FTSE and Standard & Poor’s. So we have the rare earth leaders and the rare earth global, and the rare earth Shariah Index which track 15, 30 and five companies, respectfully.



    Lelde Smits: And how does pricing work in the rare earths sector?



    Tracy Weslosky: Well I think pricing is one of the most intriguing aspects of the rare earths sector. What makes the rare earths sector interesting is it’s not like all the other resource sector companies, and I think people need to understand that. It’s more like a chemistry equation. So it’s not like gold where you have a common price for gold and you can then put a net price valuation on the company, based on those gold prices. With the rare earth industry it depends what you’re going to get out, a lot of people use the term basket, it’s inaccurate. So as an investor it’s very complex actually investing in these rare earth stocks. And in addition to that, we don’t have a futures market so it’s a complex topic to understand.



    Lelde Smits: So Tracy, which companies do you think are doing a particularly good job of developing rare earths and bringing them to market?



    Tracy Weslosky: Well I mean clearly, Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) is a frontrunner. Lynas and Molycorp Inc. (NYSE:MCP) and right now we’re all waiting to see what happens with both of them in the near future, and that’s going to affect the rest of the market. As for the rest of the companies in the market, I like to keep my opinions to myself with regards to which ones I think are front leaders. However, I think if you look at market cap size that’s usually how I like to base my recommendations.



    Lelde Smits: Now Lynas Corporation is the largest rare earths stock on the ASX [Australian Securities Exchange], but licensing issues appear to have put maiden production behind schedule. So Tracy, do you think that Lynas will be able to secure the operating licence that it needs to start production?



    Tracy Weslosky: Oh absolutely. I think Lynas is a very intriguing topic and I have to be honest with you, I’ve been a frontrunner in discussing my questioning of this anti processing facility movement that supposedly comes out of Malaysia. Having dealt with the Malaysian Government and Malaysian people over the last many years, the entrepreneur spirit there and their catalyst for bringing people around the world to open their companies there and to base them there, has always been very, very high. I’m very surprised by the negative PR that’s occurred; I’m suspicious of the sources behind it.



    And you know, I do know from people I know from the Atomic Board to the Malaysian Government to people in Malaysia, who are top entrepreneurs that they would all like to see Lynas move as expeditiously as possible. And it’s my understanding that once they get the green light they’ll be able to produce very, very quickly.



    Lelde Smits: But on a longer term basis, do you believe that we may still come up with licensing issues when the Malaysian opposition and other groups have voiced their opposition to the licence?



    Tracy Weslosky: I don’t think that they really have any grounds to stand on. I think the defamation suit that’s currently against at least one media outlet and based on the hearings that have happened with the Malaysian Government, I can’t see them keeping this up much longer. Especially as we continue to increase the positive education out there on what they’re actually doing. You know, I see them gaining a lot of support with the Malaysian community and I don’t see this being an issue.



    Lelde Smits: Now China is the major global producer of rare earths. So Tracy, how does this affect rare earth developers or investors?



    Tracy Weslosky: How does it affect? Our entire industry is determined by the Chinese, that’s it that’s all. I mean the Chinese have been masters at taking a number of our critical minerals around the world and they have full control of it. Don’t get me wrong, I love doing business with the Chinese, but we would like to see the rest of the planet have our own self-sustainability with regards to these rare earths, for a number of reasons. So no-one wants one person to control anything at any time. I think right now the black market is an issue with the Chinese. I think their export quotas, I think their recent announcement that they don’t have as many rare earths as we originally thought they did, makes them a potential importer of rare earths in the future, which is exciting for the rest of the planet.



    Lelde Smits: Tracy Weslosky, thank you so much for joining us and for your views.



    Tracy Weslosky: Thank you.



    Ends



     

    Note: Lynas Corporation is a sponsor of RareMetalBlog, published by Pro-edge Consultants.


  2. Soul_surfer

    5,300 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    So was that our little surprise due after 60 mins?

    Or did Tracy just want to get in first to promote pro edge before we get the TOL this morning??? haha

    Just having a laugh with the morning coffee.

  3. John303

    90 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Obviously a very smart lady - she agrees with me!!

  4. chucke

    3,053 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    I wonder if this will be good enough to convince Mr Market that the TOL really is imminent some time this year. Can it be enough to give us a 'RORKEt' boost out of the miserable downtrend we seem to be entrenched in ? Soon find out I guess.....has this really been a 'shake out' or are we just about to get 'stump busted ?' There surely are some signs to boost the SP today.

  5. goofy

    1,656 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    WHEN?

  6. ndra

    372 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Well that was like listening to hot air escape a half-inflated balloon...

  7. nigo

    3,072 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Tracy mentions the ongoing legal suit against what I assume to be FMT - so this indicates it was recorded before the case was settled, possibly before they made their apology.

    She says she knows directly from AELB and Malaysian govt that they wish Lynas to move "expeditiously."

    So if that was her thoughts before FMT was settled, we can deduce this is imminent now.

    Most illuminatingly, Tracy states once Lynas "get green light they'll be able to produce very, very quickly." This has implications for what has gone on behind scenes, including the state of readiness of the LAMP, the location of the ore and date of first feed to kiln, which I think we can safely assume will be a lot sooner than we imagined following TOL issue. SHe doesn't repeat VERY simply for effect, she knows what she is saying.

    Huge.

  8. Aaron_S

    239 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    I think this was a paid presentation by Tracey from Pro-Edge. The scripting of some of the infomation I havefound shows more than just independant "research"

    "Tracy Weslosky: Oh absolutely. I think Lynas is a very intriguing topic and I have to be honest with you, I’ve been a frontrunner in discussing my questioning of this anti processing facility movement that supposedly comes out of Malaysia. Having dealt with the Malaysian Government and Malaysian people over the last many years, the entrepreneur spirit there and their catalyst for bringing people around the world to open their companies there and to base them there, has always been very, very high. I’m very surprised by the negative PR that’s occurred; I’m suspicious of the sources behind it.

    And you know, I do know from people I know from the Atomic Board to the Malaysian Government to people in Malaysia, who are top entrepreneurs that they would all like to see Lynas move as expeditiously as possible. And it’s my understanding that once they get the green light they’ll be able to produce very, very quickly."

  9. Winter08

    1,354 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Niqo NC talked about timelines on the video recently posted. I don't think you can read into Tracy's comments any implications that would supersede nc's timelines.

  10. re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    it was recently reported in the west australian newspaper that the concentrate is being stored in sea containers at fremantle

  11. matty111

    196 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    A load of hot air. Pro Edge are simply a marketing company trying to promote Lynas. The TOLL may be coming but I would doubt she has any knowledge otehr than Lynas perhaps asking her to keep the hype going. I wonder what she charges ?

  12. Aaron_S

    239 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    still nothing on Part 2 in the US.. If nyone nows where to get this, can you please prove the link

    Thanks

  13. tretchikoff

    3,052 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Firstly and most recently blob. Unless you read a different article to me it was not reported in the paper Lynas REEs are being stored in containers in Fremantle. They did report, I believe, that some containers are being stored in an industrial area in the Perth metro
    (but its not Freo Shire).

    When the containers have the go ahead go they wont be stored in Freo first at any stage IMO (perhaps for more than a few hours on the docks, in the non hazardous zone BTW). They will simply be trucked or railed in and loaded on the ship.
    I alas will not get to see any of this as I took a job that was too good to say no to doing similar stuff not far south of Freo. I still have my mates there though in the home town.

    More importantly that was an interesting little show with the American lady. Informative but I still have that lingering feeling Ive been watching T.V Shop! Lol! She made some good points but as she is a paid industry player(unspecified if LYC pay or payed her at all) and the stuff seemed so scripted it lost a bit of its potential value.

    There was however still quite a bit of value in what she was saying between telling us stuff we already knew and promoting her own company. It was as much the stuff she didnt quite say that I found interesting (was I the only one who got the impression she thought the Chinese may have had some influence in holding up the LAMP approval)? And you cant disagree with her want for the rest of the world to have REE independence or the need and potential of REEs in high tech and green tech innovation.

    Overall good stuff and very pro LYC, but it would have been better if it was or at least seemed less scripted.

    And I agree with the others and the American lady the approval is feeling close now.

    Cheers Tretch

  14. re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    perth/freo ? american lady/canadian lady?

  15. chucke

    3,053 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Needs to be subtitled in Malaysian and screened to all the people who know people !!!!

  16. chucke

    3,053 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Surprising news for the'BULL'....last timewe were the equal 8th shortest stock on the asx....now 4th on the list in our own rite !!! How surprising...for those who maintain our share decline is only based on lowering RE basket prices. I've tried ...but still can't buy any shres for 0.767c !!!!

  17. ndra

    372 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    This looks like the Part 2;

    http://www.raremetalblog.com/2012/07/as-corps-nick-curtis-gives-rare-earth-industry-overview-analysis.html

  18. tretchikoff

    3,052 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    My appologies to any Canadians if the woman in question is from the land of the maple leaf. I thought she had a distictly Californian accent. I understand the small things make a difference to those involved.
    Thats why LYC wont store REE filled boxes in Freo before they are shipped. A small point. It would cause unnecessary protest. And it too expensive compared to more other industrial zones.
    Lynas storing REEs in Freo would be about as smart as me calling an American a Canadian (if thats what she is).

    : ) Tretch

  19. Soul_surfer

    5,300 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    C'mon soon we can be number 1!!!

    Who bought into the hype of the little news story but didnt wait for the 2nd bar??
    Looks like not much happening today.... we wait we watch.

  20. Soul_surfer

    5,300 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    mate cant think of the suburb now it was just east of freo, north of henderson just south of canning highway.

    But basically freo.

  21. vvg26

    1,989 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...
  22. Aaron_S

    239 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    thanks VVG26

    this is wat i was looking for... Noticably its just more insight into te reasons for market in stability in these stock and the rare earths market.. makes sence but no real "great news" from what was presented on the weekend..

    Prices are stable for now and I would expect that we need these top producers to build better confidence in the supply stability and Malaysia will sort itself.

  23. TraderMC

    1,092 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    It's being stored in Bibra Lake. I read it in the West Australian on the article a couple of weeks ago. Not that it really matters where it is, i'll get interested when it's stored on the ship ready to go.:)

  24. torpeau

    117 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    After some googling, it looks like she's American, but her company is Canadian.

  25. Hopefulone

    1,764 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    what load of public relation BS!

    Where is not Harry Wang making openly such confident remarks?

    Why is he not so certain of getting the TOL at all by the look of it - let alone soon????? If he is certain - and HE is the one with real power - the one I and many would believe if he openly came out all positive - not this woman - why not make a statement! Hence no movement in the sp! Why = those in the know KNOW what is really happening and they are NOT confident of the TOL soon. About time normal shareholders knew the truth too.

    I personally would like statments (whatever way - honesty is what is key) by harry Wang and other in power/in the know - NOT NC or this woman!

    Pressure should be put on HARRY WANG to make a statement on his VIEW.

    Long term = good = I HOLD. But for now = same BS form LYNAS mgt. More tomorrow night too imho!

  26. mitta

    15,331 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    while we wait for the rocket to warm up,

    the massive short covering rally to appear

    and the projected 90c orbit to be hit,

    I just wonder where our current position/mood is on this cycle ?


  27. re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    ok go the dockers

  28. chucke

    3,053 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Start buying.....contempt more imminent than TOL..LOL

  29. m87

    578 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Hi Mitta, for us newbies, what might a short cover rally look like. This past 6 days of trading is not a covering period?

    I suspect I got in at confidence, blinded by greed, but sliding more to resignation rather than contempt.

  30. tretchikoff

    3,052 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Ha ha, now your talkin blobbbtopia!
    When the first REE shipment arrives in freo it should take just a couple of hours to get the number of containers Ive heard constitute a load onto the ship. Thats the sort of docker action Im looking forward to.
    Oh and the Freo Dockers beating the Weagles next weekend would be highly desirable aswell! But alas somewhat less certain than Lynas REEs leaving Fremantle in the nearish future.

    Tretch

  31. philh9

    4,366 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    nice pic mitta, I can get all those emotions just taking the dog for a walk.

    Charts You could throw in a few US REE's and they would show up with similar charts or just pop up a RE value and same again. Could almost say it matters not for whom the bell tolls.

  32. Gandalf

    463 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    It's the denial phase for me mitta, refused to look at my watchist/portfolio and have'nt added in my last two parcels yet. Feel like a blind man rolling down a hill atm. In this for the long haul either way.

    m87, best short cover I have seen was onesteel, now ARI. Started about 20/21 feb, from low 70's till a high of 1.115 on 29th feb, 166 mill traded that day, and watched about 60 mill go through at auction alone. Not a huge spread but volume was full on with heaps of buying coming off screen.

  33. rastus2

    2,271 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Hopefuleone!

    What would harry's motivation be to openly state his sentiment ???

    If i was harry, and bullish, i would keep quiet and buy on the way down..

    If i was harry and bearish, i would keep quiet and sell, or speak bullish, while quietly selling...

  34. 23skidoo

    1,251 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Mitta3,
    We are collectively and simultaneously at all points on the curve!
    But despite all the arguments in the negative which were starting to get me nervous, IMO We are on a good thing and I read a certain confidence coming from NC during his interview. I hope I'm right!
    I have no plans to bail.

  35. danbradster

    1,503 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    She pronounced Molycorp as Molycore. She's a rare earths expert?

  36. Hans Brix

    2,851 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    A soft or silent P is common when saying "Corp"

  37. AGROS

    1,103 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    My birthday is on Wednesday - wouldn't the TOL be a lovely present

  38. ndra

    372 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    "My birthday is on Wednesday - wouldn't the TOL be a lovely present"

    funny - that's what I said to myself in late May...

  39. Leapingl

    111 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Unfortunately she didn't specify a year. Malaysia, what a joke.

  40. chucke

    3,053 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    We could also wish you a happy 'earth'day.......happy birthday anyway Agros.....do yourself a favour and don't look at the laptop !!!!

  41. AGROS

    1,103 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    chucke - cheers! that might be hard to resist!

  42. mitta

    15,331 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    M87, a short covering rally would occur between 'CONTEMPT' and 'DOUBT & SUSPICION', it would be on big big volumes/spread when all the trader/investors who are holding only shorts think as a group that the tide is just about to change

    and thats the catch, with all the high volume which is them BUYING the stock back, its hard to see if its a real 'short covering rally' or simply another 'pump' by the pro money.

    Also Gandalf ARI was a good example to use, did you note that it basically rallied the stock 100%, unfortunately it has now fallen back to where the rally began

    Phil, thats a good idea will attempt to find other US REE stocks and chart them

    ......

    Time to BUY is at Bullish chart patterns at the end of a FEAR cycle, are we there yet certainly enough fear seems to be present but are there any bullish chart patterns ?

    Time to SELL is at the end of a GREED cycle on Bearish chart patterns

  43. Orwell

    547 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Just watched the video interview at the start of this thread by so called expert Tracey Weslosky, that know one’s heard of before.

    She presents herself as an independent expert, but let her cover slip at 5.39 minutes into the tape when talking about Lynas issues in Malaysia where she says “... especially as “we” continue to increase the positive communication out there....” . The rest of the tape she talks about Lynas as “them” or “they”. She’s clearly a paid PR person employed by Lynas.

    More interesting is why Nick Curtis has suddenly dug up this woman to go and spruik the company at this time, when they’ve had such poor PR and investor communications to date. ...mmmm.

  44. rastus2

    2,271 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Yup chaps, this whold interview is about managing the investors who feel burnt, nithing else...

  45. Gandalf

    463 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Yes mitta I got some nice trades through the ARI rally. You see buying like that it's time to get on board.

    The interesting part was the 60 mill at EOD. After such an obvious short squeeze, It's unlikely that someone would dump 60 mill for whatever they could get. This seemed totally orchestrated from start to finish, with the eod price already set up to go. Supports the dark pool theory imo, but it was done for all to see.

    I expect to see the same scenario wih Lyc sometime soon, so I hope they settle on a price north of $1 like they did with ARI.

  46. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Orwell, do 5 mins research before you vent your spleen and create another stupid impression.

    Tracey Weslosky's forgotten more about RE than you'll ever know and mixes in circles you can only dream about.

    As your were too lazy to look at her CV before venting:

    "Tracy Weslosky
    CEO, ProEdge Media Corp.
    President, REE Stocks Company Ltd.

    The Founder (2001) and CEO for Pro-Edge Consultants Inc., a global publishing and production company focused on public markets that attracts half a million readers a month, Tracy Weslosky is also the Publisher and Sr. Editor on the following Pro-Edge sites: RareMetalBlog.com, PotashBlog.com, UraniumBlog.com, GraphiteBlog.com, GotGoldReport.com and CurrencyCountdown.com.
    Tracy is the Managing Director of London-based REE Stocks Company Ltd. the proprietor of the REE Global Index (REEG), the REE Leaders Index (REEL) and the REE Shariah Index (REES). She currently sits on the Advisory Board for Frontier Rare Earths (TSX: FRO), is the Chairman and Founder for REE World and is the Sr. Editor for the semi-monthly REE World Report.

    With over 20+ years of experience, Ms. Weslosky is an entrepreneur who owned her own boutique investment-banking firm for six years that was the basis for a business reality television series called, DealFlow. DealFlow aired from 2008-2010 on CNBC World and was broadcast on CNBC, CNBC affiliates, WealthTV, and many other television networks around the world."

    Amongst other things ProEdge group runs RareMetalBlog and Lynas is one of their major sponsors.

    RareMetalBlog were responsible for the "Start LYNAS Today" online petition, also FaceBook & Twitter, links in the article:
    http://www.raremetalblog.com/2012/05/start-lynas-today-campaign-lynas-goes-on-offense-with-legal-action-against-protest-groups.html

    Take the trouble to read back thru her articles and she's been a strong Lynas supporter for years and RareMetalBlog does a huge amount of publicity for the industry as a whole.

  47. nigo

    3,072 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Nice one Ausheds - take it you don't think Trace is likely to want that resume going up the spout with her Licence is Certain video either?

    ... just interested in your take on her statement that following the green light, production will commence "very, very soon"... how does that compare to previous theories of how soon after TOL issue first feed might be? What's this telling us that we don't already know do you think?

    (I realise we still have NC stating clearly his technical people tell him around 2 months before anything you can sell comes out the business end)

    PS I bit slow sometimes - wasn't sure if you were on about the shaft of my driver or what the other night. Will have to look that one up when I've made my truckload here. Cheers :)

  48. Orwell

    547 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Ausheds. We both agree she’s a strong Lynas supporter. My view is she appears a bit too close to present herself as independent.

    As for research, I read Hot Copper!! No one on this forum has previously spoken of her by name as far I’m aware of in the time I’ve been involved, with 100’s of HC researchers looking everywhere for information.

    I trade and invest by analysing the company on fundamentals and then using technical analysis for entry/exit points. As for researching wider than that, then Hot Copper is good enough for me for a broad review of other sources of information and views. But given I rely on Hot Copper for information, I think it’s appropriate that I try and contribute occasionally to the forum. If you don’t think my view has merit or you’re a bit sensitive to me pointing out conflicts is Ms Weslosky’s spin piece, I simply don’t care. Just stick to posting your own contrary views without the personal attacks.

  49. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Mitta, to support Phil's thoughts you need look no further than Quest (QRM) & Avalon (AVL), perfect graphics.

    Just spare a thought for the investors that bought at the top $8.78 to 1.35 & $9.74 to 1.47 respectively.

    Only question that needs answering IMO is now that all the hot money has been blasted out of the RE bubble which company is best positioned to the upside?

    To quote NC: “Stability of Rare Earths supply chains is vital to support the growing demand for the important applications which rely on Rare Earths. As current production is curtailed due to production quotas and environmental concerns in China, Lynas can bring stability of supply by not only owning the source of our products in the ground at Mount Weld, but also by processing them in world class production facilities which are designed to meet the strict environmental requirements of Australia and Malaysia.”

    THAT was in January 19, 2010, 18 months ago:
    http://www.raremetalblog.com/2010/01/news-lynas-extends-rare-earths-supply-contract-and-signs-a-technical-co-operation-agreement-with-rhodia.html

    Our "part-time" CEO has forgotten more about the BUSINESS of RE's than most so-called RE CEO's will ever know. Topped up another 100K today on the strength of the Part 2 interview and probably could have saved a few K on the HK RE conference.

    RE demand is the biggest influence on the Lynas SP atm, as any REO price/stock graph will show, and Lynas will be very much part of it's own salvation.

  50. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Orwell, apologies if I was a little blunt but Tracey has not only been a strong advocate for Lynas but the RE industry as a whole.

    Sure she has a vested interest but if you listen to the interview re investment analysts you'll start to realise where the pricing bubble in RE's originated and start to think that the industry needs more knowledgeable, LT, grounded spokespeople like Tracey.

    Can I strongly suggest you spend 30 minutes a week scanning:
    http://www.raremetalblog.com/
    http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/
    if you have a real interest in the bigger picture. Lots of good ideas outside RE's there as well.

  51. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Hi there niqo, completely forgotten re the other night, was I trying to be funny??

    I think Tracey's "very, very soon" was probably relative to the long haul getting to this point or perhaps the RE competitors.

    As I understand it 6 weeks to ship concentrate, 8 weeks in production, 2 weeks for purchasers to verify quality & say 4 week payment terms. Initial production will be pretty basic, at the bottom end of the value scale.

    Five months x $10M pcm and we've already burnt $20M of the $75M according to JPM's countdown so that means we need a TOL within 2 weeks or the staff will be out in Martin Place rattling a tin for their lunch money.

  52. mitta

    15,331 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...".....look no further than Quest (QRM) & Avalon (AVL), perfect graphics.....

    Cheers aus, will do

  53. mitta

    15,331 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    ausheds,

    wow the ree stocks have certainly been belted and your choice of these two is a very good example of the entire industry not just LYC

    2 comparison weekly charts

    LYC is the greyed out stock

    AVL LYC




    QRM LYC



    For a LT hold and low risk imo one would be waiting for all the industry to turn, not just an individual like MCP or REMX (even though this is like an index of the larger players and would be a starter)

  54. philh9

    4,366 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Belted black and blue, be nice when pressure of boot on neck is eased a bit.

    Do I spy some little uptick, what do your stars say mitta.

  55. Subah

    937 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Well I think Mr Market is quietly confident now that TOL really is not that far away, well its closer then it was before by a long shot. That little press update will be ringing in the PM's ears just reminding him the time has come.

    It may also be enough to put some doubt in the shorters minds to start to buy back positions soon. They dont want to be caught in a TH thats for sure.

  56. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Thought you might like those Mitta, just about all RE charts look similar but those two are particularly clear.

    Thing is I have been following a wide range of RE charts, Oz mkt way too narrow & insular, but got caught out in the belief Lynas's near term production would separate it from the pack. Thing that really hurt was being only lightly hedged on the break thru the $1.70 region. Lesson learnt.

    Still confident Lynas will strongly re rate on production and the market starting to understand Duncan so will be interesting to have another look at those overlay charts in 6/12 months.

    Extremely well written, very recent report from Hallgarten on the TUC site that also covers the general RE space and they clearly have no idea of Duncan's potential:

    http://www.tucresources.com.au/images/tuc_hallgarten_july2012.pdf

    Credit to Torpedo for posting that on the NTU forum, it's extremely well researched & presented.

  57. resourced

    2,009 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Ausheds - I read it too yesterday. It was extremely well written with a lot of very good and clear insight into the sector and its prospects.

  58. ausheds

    9,083 posts.
    re: News: Rare earths expert certain of Lynas...

    Someone just needs to have a little chat with the author and fill them in on Duncan but otherwise great background and importantly, very current.

    Compared to Moly Lynas is a shrinking violet but I'd rather own the "doer" than the "talker" at the end of the day.

    Just "do" us a TOL!

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