As the Hindering Detractor (its a better nic than Indi ... can I change it ?
) I hear your frustration but for mine at least now some of what we read today supports what they have been trying to take credit for 6 months ago....or at a minimum people were trying to attribute.
I wanted to see capital expenditure in the Q2 &Q3s to support deposits on equipment signalling that new lines may turn up on site in 9-12 months time. It wasn't visible so had a hard time accepting that the Griffin claim that 3 lines were going in and new clean rooms being built back in Feb-Mar was accurate.
Now there is evidence in the Q4 that they have paid deposits and made payments for capital equip they have some time to arrange the finance before the next milestone payment on equipment. (Should leasing be the chosen option). At least there is evidence to go with the statements around "expansion in line with customers requirements"...ie my read is hopefully be Easter new lines in and running (how many lines??? i dunno....)
Cash for the qtr??? writer and others rightly challenged my view when I said we risk a bad Q4 qtr as the existing lines were down for automation and control upgrades so with no capacity there was little chance of any cash for the qtr unless an upfront landed on our door. We were told to expect qtr on qtr growth so I wasn't prepared to neglect the obvious reality in the hope that statement would hold true. LOL I sort of expected the poor qtr so can hardly pretend to be disappointed.
So , I think the bad Q4 cash flow simply reflects the tough situation of having to take some short term pain to be able to yeild some benefit from a better performing existing line. But UNS claims its back up and running with clean room layout changes completed so at least now there is cause for optimism for cash next qtr as at least we have manuf capacity back.
Today they again used language around shipping product for filling validation, compatability studies etc which again is in line with the semantic arguments we have had in the past few months about the purpose of what is going to be shipped this calendar year. Knowing what its for gives a feel for volume and it will be lower than what pharma will be taking off our hands next year because its not for commercial sale purposes. Rather the step in the process that comes before it, validating lines and meeting regulatory requirements
I had earlier posted that what Ramin and Allen were calling commercial sales would likely be for filling validation and regulatory filing and today we saw them clean their language up to better reflect the events coming. LOL again its what I sort of already knew and tried to communicate in earlier threads....so again hard to be disappointed when its in line with my expectation.
Sort of is a relief that things now make sense and events more clearly aligned
2014 is about new deals and up front payments so can only hope that spike in R&D spending how won over a few customers and we can bank some up fronts like the company has bee talking about the past 12 months.
Lasty, I havent liked the sniper shots across my bow the past few days that is becoming popular for sharing a dissimilar view...so I am trying to be an adult and stick by my fathers saying..."say what you mean, mean what you say and don't be mean saying it" I am an adult and can handle direct criticism for my views or whatever. Which of course includes being called when I am wrong... so writer, TDA rusty...call me on it and use my name rather than childish innuendo.