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PGI 17.5¢

mid quarter 3 update needed

  1. hunterjoe

    228 posts.

    Like last quarter, a mid quarter update is required to be released to the ASX.
    This update can inform the market the following:
    1. Increase production for the first 6 weeks of Q3 that is ready to be shipped
    2. Show the market what the new target in $ for Q3.
    3. Total anticipated revenue for Q3.
    4. Forecast increase revenue for Q4.
    Along with the news that was released on 8th August, this new news should enhance the SP & spread the good news of PGI

  2. sivart

    4,466 posts.

    Hunter,

    I agree. And update some time around mid quarter (give or take a bit to let them time things appropriately) with those sort of details would be great and I'd hope the company is planning this. Following on from this as we reach final steady state I'd like to see the company go even further and put together a company presentation providing all details about the project and its earnings. Having everything in one announcement and in this form would be much worth the effort. Hopefully that is doable some time next quarter.

  3. Hunter, I like your optimism when you include the word "increase" in both production and revenue for the next update.

    Let's keep our fingers crossed.

  4. hunterjoe

    228 posts.

    Hopefully,I get part of my optimism from the mid-Q2 announcement on 15th May,2013 which stated:

    "It is anticipated that revenue for Q3 will be in the order of US$18 to US$20 million followed by further increases in Q4 with continuing process optimisation."

    Hoping the team can tweak to match the optimum output of the plant to the bench tests.

    Therefore, gross revenue/quarter of >$20M should rock the socks off the market.
    This should give net annual profit for project >$55M

  5. plough

    15,299 posts.

    "This should give net annual profit for project >$55M"

    I feel You are getting profit mixed up with cashflow, profit wont be that high I feel too many other costs depreciation, interest, exploration . And expecting updates all the time seems a little demanding on managment.

  6. sivart

    4,466 posts.

    Plough,

    I don't think it's too much to ask for another update providing the details hunter asked for in the next few weeks. That should take 1 hour max to put together; they should already be tracking those details as part of due course. If it takes longer than that then something is clearly wrong. And moreso maybe part of the plan forward is start thinking about a communications company to push details to and provide announcements.

  7. It was only 5 days since the last announcement, give em a chance to make some gold people's . The announcement will come soon enough and should be good

  8. hunterjoe

    228 posts.

    Last announcement was specifically about the performance of the Albion/CIL process plant.

    What is needed is like the last mid Q2 announcement on 15th May which was released 6 weeks into the Q2 which gave a forecast for the overall project at Las Lagunas.

    Remember, this project is still in up-ramp mode, nearing completion.
    It is 6 weeks into Q3 & a forecast released this far into Q3 will advise the market of a great product & hopefully increase SP.

    To sit for another 6 to 8 weeks will only allow market to forget PGI & the SP will flounder.

  9. bigbillbrown

    2,049 posts.

    I'm with you Hunterjoe. The last announcement was short and assumably a bit rushed as they wanted the market to understand quickly the success they were enjoying. It would make sense to expand on that with a mid quarter update. I like your posts, constructive. I am due to call them myself and will suggest the same.

    bbb

  10. Well, well, well. I am posting from Singapore International Airport having flown thousnads of miles from Oz. PGI's SP has yet to make some ground.

    Will log in again when I get to penang this aft.

  11. Tiggles

    793 posts.

    The price is edging up, but remember, the professional investor will not make indiscriminate buying and force the price up so so he/she will then have to buy at higher prices.

    That doesn't make sense.

    While the professional buyer is buying , the shakey knees are still waiting for the definite announcement about cash flows and profits.

  12. plough

    15,299 posts.

    I guess each invester has a different perspective and time frame I have probably been holding this for 3 years so another 3 or 4 months is not too big a deal for me to wait for them to hit their straps.
    When I just buy a stock I expect it to make good gains initially but if it does not I just dont look at it for a while and for a while could be 6 months to a couple of years.
    Maybe I just dont have too high a expectations like some on here.

  13. I am glad to see a slight rise in the SP. Hope it does slide down again like so many times before.

    Had a good lunch in Penang downtown. Got some important family stuff to do before 5pm. Will be here for only a few days. Next destination BKK for 10 nights.

  14. domum

    10,791 posts.

    AHHHHH BBB!

    Nice to see you here :-)

    Still watching some of the ex Docs specs I see.

    I'll NEVER forget the Continental days!

    Some production figures for say 6 weeks would be nice as per HJ's points and I cant see BJ not providing such if they are available.

    Some interesting buying last couple of days.One might almost say a little hurried.I wonder if such a report isnt that far away.

    But then it shouldnt surprise if BJ holds fire for a couple more weeks to confirm that upward trend he mentioned in the last annmnt.

    d.

  15. I view with some apprehension from afar at the SP of PGI. It started quite positively minutes after the opening bell but only to slide back to 95c (previous close) from morning's high of 98c.

    Buyers are still holding back and sellers are not shy to sell even at 95c.

  16. Trish

    179 posts.

    Maybe some PGI holders waiting for a Au/Ag spike to jump ship........ there are a lot of 'soft' goldie-holders out there, so not surprising. It's going to take someone/something BIG to eventually break through the resistance up to 15c....

  17. we're up and the markets down.... patience grasshoppers

  18. VonTrapp

    204 posts.

    I know this sounds silly given how crap the markets have been over the last 12 months ... but even at these prices ... I can see PGI as a 3 bagger from here now that these production issues appear sorted.

    Just imagine if they were able to source some other ore to process .. which seems o be the plan. They could end up with 10-12 years of feed for this plant.

    There I said it.

  19. Tiggles

    793 posts.

    I wouldn't be surprised if it is one buyer at the moment and he/she has seen off the early morning buyers.

    Now he/she is a position to play anyway they wish with the remaining sellers minds

  20. Cyberguy

    814 posts.

    I just wish they would release a mid-quarter update with some decent info.

  21. hunterjoe

    228 posts.

    Yes, please release the mid-quarter update NOW!! - well first thing Monday.
    That gives you BJ the weekend to get all info together.

  22. blake_jw

    505 posts.

    This stock is being incorrectly priced by the market. Silver up to AUD$25/oz and production quality looking very good now.

    Will see a re-rating in the next month or two.

    P.S. I don't believe in efficient market theory

  23. big mahn

    4,494 posts.

    Same thing happened yesterday morning buying / arvo selling. Could have been punters taking a position early in anticipation of a positive mid quarter update yesterday or today and sold out late in arvo when it was clear no update would be provided. Hopefully Monday update, doubled holdings yesterday.

  24. Unfortunately no mention of any progress made in that phase of PGI's operations (new feeds). I have been a lone wolf crying in the dark for some sort of statement in that connection from the Company but with little or no effect. The next phase's success is where the real money is.

    I am afraid you are behind time Von.

  25. "Next month", "next month or two", "next quarter".

    How many times have I read them on the PGI thread.

  26. Just what makes you hope that there would be an update on Monday? And, if any, it would be positive?

  27. LSounds like your losing faith Stephen.

    Could be time to sell the rest if your that concerned.

  28. big mahn

    4,494 posts.

    Umm because its half way through the quarter and they released one around this time 3 months ago with update on projected sales? Positive as they have stated recoveries are close to target and trending up recently

  29. I had complete faith in the project but I feel something is lacking. I would sell the rest but not at a loss.

    And I would trade when such opportunity presents itself to do so.

  30. locky27

    1,383 posts.

    After latest announcements which I,m happy with lets have no updates for 4 months and price drops to .055 and we top up big time and then get the all the improvements and success then a Whamo announcement.....I.ve got another buy in at .074......so don't need continual announcements....Relax.

  31. Care to reveal what you feel is lacking. Or is it one of those gut feelings.

    I remember reading your posts a few months ago and they where very positive.

    Find it hard to see how that changes after previous announcement even with the poor quarterly.

    Cheers G

  32. Just because they did it 3 months ago, it does not mean they will do it again.

    If you take a look back to my posts a few months ago, I was a lone wolf crying in the dark for more and timely reports from the Company on production and sales during the ramp-up periods.

    I have also been a lone wolf crying in the dark for some progress report on sourcing for new feeds.

    This lone wolf, me, is getting tired of crying........

  33. Dejavoo

    1,363 posts.

    try howling.

  34. Cyberguy

    814 posts.

    What is lacking? Well a statement that the high levels achieved as per the 8th August announcement are holding or continuing to improve. The market needs to know they have sustained these levels if not bettering them on a sustained basis.
    PGI probably is but they could make it clear now.

    I have a few shares in lynas, a company with some potential. Earlier this year they announced that their new processing plant had reached design capacity, however what they failed to mention until the quarterly weeks later was that they were only able to keep that rate up for a few days before the wheels fell off. Yes, they are putting them back on properly but its going to take some time, which delays everything and uses up cash and meant production was nowhere near what some had expected.

  35. can anyone post a chart...pgi price verses stephens cries for news...think theres a correlation here, relax, enjoy ur asian getaway. next year you'll be flying first class

  36. You can't teach an old wolf new tricks...hehehe

  37. That is the very problem with some people and Govt. VIPs, the problem being spending big.

    Micro, FYI I travel in budget airlines to Asian countries like BKK where I pay about A$35 and get a self-serviced suite (60m2). Check out Sathorn Place which has received a few perfect 10 in reviews. I will be there for the next two weeks or so.

    I just had Peking Duck etc for dinner followed by durian for dessert.

    First class flying belongs to Senior Company executives and Senior Govt Ministers which cost them nothing.

  38. bigbillbrown

    2,049 posts.

    From vague memory, CVR was a bit like that in the ramp up stage Cyberguy. In the end I think they had one good month producing at half name plate. Unfortunately for a few extra months they pretended they still were. Only on the ASX! The market does seem to be pricing in some sort of risk that these recovery numbers are not the final story here. Personally I see that risk as pretty low. They deliberately made some changes in order to achieve this result and it worked. I would like an update myself. Just think its good practise to update as often as possible at this stage. Keeps all investors happy which doesn't just boost the share price now but helps the stock trade at higher multiples down the track. I'm relaxed though. Its a nice position to know that 90% likely that good news, particularly on current cash flow, is coming up. That's what its all about. PGI is an exciting opportunity for me right now. The opportunity partly brought about in my view by a low quality investor base attracted originally by a newsletter that provided no critical analysis. They are just to type to sell when they should be pyramiding!




  39. domum

    10,791 posts.

    The annmnt doesnt actually state what the term "target" refers to.

    Open to interpretation perhaps?

    Is it the pilot plant targets or is it the companies/engineers self set targets on a successful ramp-up cycle with all processing plant working to plan,as one would assume is the case now.

    Whatever the case the company does state that there is SIGNIFICANT improvement over how it was recovering previously which can only mean as long as all goes to plan with the rest of ramp-up we will eventually see a plant that will produce close to or at the pilot numbers.

    Ultimately we will simply have to wait until the company deems it appropriate to give us some numbers that are much more accurate in terms of recovery/production.

    My guess would be that if these targets are self set company targets we could be anywhere between 50 and 80% of plant potential atm and it could still be a few more weeks yet until we see those numbers.

    Quite happy to be wrong and those targets are indeed in reference to the final pilot numbers expected and therefore we may well see an annmnt very shortly.

    Still will be an excellent achievement in bringing a new process as applied to refractive Au/Ag ores to a successful conclusion(and in such a relatively short period of time) and will herald a much more cost effective solution to extracting Au/Ag from such ores.

    d.

  40. bigbillbrown

    2,049 posts.

    Hi Domum. You got me thinking but I don't think you are right about being open to interpretation. Its pretty clear when you look at the way they use the word target in the June quarter to refer to design targets, as they always have.

    In March this year they had said that recoveries were within 10% of target. But the detailed report on 19 March emphasised the importance of low residual sulphur for recoveries and they had problems there in the June quarter. They didn't give flotation recoveries but assumably they dropped significantly from 73% achieved in the March quarter.

    I'm relying on Pauls numbers a bit here and would appreciate any feed back. When I look at those last numbers, CIL recoveries haven't improved that much from the June quarter. They were already at 76.5% or 8% from target. As I said, the flotation recoveries were not given but the inferred recovery using 1.15gt was only 39.5%. I assume that was due to problems with residual sulphides averaging 4.11% in the quarter. However, by the time the quarterly came out they said that was resolved and levels were approaching the 2.5% target.

    So, the positive update shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise but it looks like floatation recoveries have improved from 39% in the June quarter to 78.39% now. Does that sound right?

    Glancing back over the history I can see why the market is a bit skeptical about this being the final solution. Even the company said you should be careful about snapshots of the business at this development stage (so they should update frequently!). The trends look good though as they reported and the upside is high with this processing being the closest thing we'll ever see to alchemy. Once the process is proven, the good news should flow. At the annual report in March they said they were in discussions regarding three prospective commercial agreements.







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