All this hype regarding the FED's threat to raise rates & the effect on the price of gold caused me
to take a closer look.-average approximations only for the years below,
just to give indication as to trend significants.
US- FED-Rate - US-POG.
1990- 8% $400.
1992 - 4%-DOWN- by 50% - $375 -POG-down -5%-bugger all considering FED rate down 50%.
1993- 3%-DOWN- by 25% - $380 -POG-up slightly & FED -lowered rate 25% -POG NOT DOWN?.
1994- 4%-UP - by 25% - $400- POG-up 5% -when THE FED RAISED rate.?.
1995- 6.5%-UP- by 60% - $400-POG-same,-when FED RAISED rate- POG -NOT DOWN ?.
2000- 6%-DOWN- by 8% - $280- down -30%- OK -movements match current implied.
2005- 3%-DOWN-by 50% - $420- POG-up -50%-WHEN FED rate down by 50%-?.
2010 - 0.25%-DOWN-by 90%-$1,000-POG-up--140%-OK -movements match current implied.
2015- 0.15%- DOWN - $1,200-POG-UP 20%,- OK -movements match current implied.
2016- 0.40%- UP - $1,300-POG-UP -8%-when FED RAISED rate?.
Its just not there, I would conclude there has been more variables to consider regarding the POG,
movement than the FED raising or lowering, like the Global Financial Crisis,
the gulf War & other world political & financial implications yet to play out,
US debt- Brexit etc.
ON just a one dimensional plain, of coarse lowering the FED rate effects the USD & the
POG-reacts negatively.
But as history shows it would do 5/8s of Fck all in the bigger picture as any hike's would
be minimal.
The Fed has & is gaining far more from implying the US economy is stronger than it is
therefore they may raise rates- than actually doing so,if they do -its likely one & done.
If they did- the stock market will crash & they will have used up there ammo !?
Remembering the US debt has spiraled out of control, it now has a debt of 20 Trillion- USD
this has doubled in the last 12 years-do we really believe they want higher rates?
imo its just very long winded scare mongering that defies reality!!!
imo-glth
salt
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