Earlier in the week, the Indian website the Business Standard provided an update on the almond prices in the local markets:
Barring a rise in almond and its kernel prices on the back of pick-up in demand from retailers, other dry fruits held steady at the wholesale market in the national capital today.
Traders said increased demand from retailers amid restricted supplies from producing belts mainly led to the rise in almond and its kernel prices.
Almond (California) rose by Rs 50 to Rs 21,750 per 40 kg.
Converted into kilos and local dollars at the current exchange rate, that translates to just over $11.00 a kilo. This is near a 12 month high for the almond price.
I was assuming that the stubbornly high almond price was influenced by the strike at the Californian ports earlier in the year, but this strike was resolved on the 21st of February and the first of the container ships that were delayed by the the strike would have arrived in India by now.
So it seems the almond price is being held up by supply issues elsewhere, most likely the situation in California, which is looking increasingly dire.
The Hilltop Ranch provided a drought update on the 1st of April:
Today, the last snowpack sample of the season was taken about 90 miles East of Sacramento. Governor Brown personally attended the sampling. He saw that there was bare ground at the sampling site. Usually there is several feet of snow at that site at this point in the year, as this is usually the peak of the snowpack accumulation. California will now be trust into mandatory water restrictions that are unprecedented. The future of the 2015 almond crop is more in question now than it ever has been.
The supply problems may not be confined to California, either.
Last week saw torrential rainfall and flooding in Chile, which is the second largest almond exporting country in the southern hemisphere.
One of the main almond growing areas in Chile is the region of Coquimbo. Judging from the report on this website, it appears that the recent flooding has caused considerable disruption to agriculture in this region.
In short, it doesn't look like the almond price will be falling any time soon.
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