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LYC 4.5¢

deutsch bank downgrade

  1. kevwr

    179 posts.


    Not sure if this is old news, how accurate have Deutsche Bank been in the past with their forecasts?

  2. NightStalker

    5,362 posts.

    If Douche Bank are downgrading Lynas, then it must definitely be time to buy...!

  3. bsumisu

    1,909 posts.

    it is old news from days ago

  4. Noyrez has stated repeatedly that Phase I is profitable. There are new challenges, but it seems that RE prices are at least firming.

    DB also neglects the 15,000 tons of concentrate at Mt. Weld along with the 750,000 ton mountain of ore. The only costs to Lynas going forward are processing and overhead for corporate for the time being.

    I think it is timed well and that Lynas will be in full production next year.

    They also neglect the net asset value of the mine itself, which is expected to be 25 years production at the 22K Ton nameplate capacity of Gebeng.Of course they do not value Duncan as it is virgin.

    Putting out a "sell" recommendation based upon very limited publicly available data just 10 days or so before any announcement is odd. Analysts must be very careful in presenting their data as the exchanges watch them and the trading sides like hawks.

  5. NightStalker you are a genius! Buying has commenced.

  6. SRV

    1,152 posts.

    DB have been long term shorters of the stock - for at least a couple of years now - I trust their buy/sell recc'd as far as I could throw Nick Curtis... ;)

  7. Dear All,

    When you work this out let me know!!!

    FNArena quotes DB 16 July 2013

    "...2011 prices have disappeared with global economic uncertainty. Lynas is seen in a tough situation with sales uncertainty and possible capital issues ahead of any market recovery.
    Deutsche Bank has lowered earnings forecasts by around 150% from FY14 to FY16 and does not expect Lynas to have positive earnings until FY17.

    The rating has been downgraded to Sell from Hold and the price target reduced to 30c from 58c."

    JP Morgan reckon the opposite !!!

    12 July 2013 "Target $0.60 (was $0.65)... the stock is now ridiculously cheap. Combined with more confidence in the rare earths market, the stock is upgraded to Buy."

  8. Jan Johnson

    2,364 posts.

    Easy Sherlock,
    One lot are short and the others are long.

  9. antibotter

    4,073 posts.


    I stopped taking notice of brokers years ago

    WIIFM - what's in it for me - is a current motto which these people live by

    That is why it is important to do your own research imo

  10. natanna76

    928 posts.


    Or On like Donkey Kong

  11. Wazza222

    89 posts.

    Funny you should think this. I heard of one big broker who conveniently issued a buy recommendation on a stock to its Retail clients while it was busy off loading a line for one of its insto clients at the same time.

  12. ML173

    4,241 posts.

    and now is the time to issue Sell recomendation while recovering their shorted positions. Thats the only way to explain the run on Friday, lol..

    Man, talking about professional integrety, and corporate credibility are on sale for a quick buck:)

  13. RVR

    2,445 posts.

    Can we really claim that our market is regulated any better than Third World markets? After watching the manipulation by institutions in Lynas et al over the past couple of years, I suspect not...

  14. AGROS

    1,103 posts.

    broker recommendations never cease to amaze me.

    Surly, if it was a recommendation in the best interest of the clients they would not disclose to the public?

    the recommendations to the public make me think whether there is a hidden motive behind the recommendation.

    That said I always take the contrary to what a broker says unless of course I were paying for their service

  15. m1ckster

    167 posts.

    I agree agros, just look at ncm in the low 9s after broker downgrades to sell fr Jpm,, goldmann, ncm is now in 11-12 range.

    Sell from deutsche simply indicates they are closing shorts n assuming a long stance, wise move considering quarterly is not far away and surprise surprise theyve already been tipped off as too the news. Anyone watching the market depth over the past 2 weeks or so , can see that a change is coming:) gl to those with an appetite for risk:)

  16. Leeman

    972 posts.

    Good post Argos,

    I feel that brokers are in the same boat as used car salesmen and bankers .


  17. Can we add Real Estate agents.
    I've heard hardened criminals refuse to be associated with 'em

  18. there is a great section on real estate agents in freakonomics (which is an enjoyable read in itself)

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