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daytrading august 16 pre-market

  1. highlandlad

    6,224 posts.

    Morning traders.

    Market wrap:

    Australian shares are pointing lower following Wall Street's worst night since June amid gloomy corporate earnings outlooks and escalating borrowing costs.

    The September SPI 200 futures contract retreated 36 points or 0.7% to 5074 after the Dow logged back-to-back triple-digit declines and the S&P 500 hit a six-week low.

    Reduced earnings forecasts from retailers Wal-Mart and Macy's and IT giant Cisco cast a pall over the session. The S&P 500 sagged 24 points or 1.45% with the consumer discretionary and technology sectors both declining at least 1.8%. The Dow tanked 226 points or 1.47% and the Nasdaq lost 1.72%.

    Also unsettling investors were a mixed bag of economic data, turmoil in Egypt and the steady rise in interest rates since the Federal Reserve raised the possibility that it might start to "taper" its stimulus program before the end of the year.

    "With weaker earnings, higher interest rates and geopolitical concerns, risk assets like stocks don't do well in that type of environment," the senior equity strategist for US Bank Wealth Management told Bloomberg. "The jobless claims numbers were sufficiently strong that taper fears are probably front and centre."

    First-time claims for unemployment benefits last week reduced by 15,000 to 320,000 last week, the lowest level in six years. Consumer inflation increased by 0.2% last month, industrial production was steady but regional manufacturing gauges for the greater New York and Philadelphia regions both declined. Overall, analysts said the data favoured a near-term reduction in the Fed's stimulus program.

    "A host of data was released this morning but judging by the reaction in bond yields, the overall reaction is positive for the economy and negative for Fed asset purchases," the chief global strategist at BTIG told MarketWatch. "The continued reduction in the pace of firings to the slowest since the fall of 2007 should point the Fed further into the camp of taper sooner rather than later, and it's likely why the 10-year yield touched 2.80% immediately after versus 2.71% just yesterday and why the S&P futures are at the low of the morning."

    Shares in Dow component Cisco slumped 7.15% after it announced it was slashing 4,000 jobs to cope with a "challenging" and "inconsistent" economy. Wal-Mart, another Dow component, slipped 2.6% as it warned that consumers were not spending as much as expected, a day after Macy's delivered essentially the same message.

    Precious metals were among the night's winners as falls in the US dollar, stocks and bonds and rising inflation encouraged rotation into alternative stores of wealth. Gold for December delivery rallied $31.70 or 2.4% to US$1,365.10 an ounce. September silver rocketed $1.19 or 5.5% to US$22.98 an ounce.

    Oil touched a two-week high, rising for a fifth night as violent clashes in Egypt raised concerns over the country's role as a transport link from the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for September delivery was lately up 39 cents or 0.4% at US$107.26 a barrel.

    Iron ore turned lower for the first time in eight sessions. Spot ore for import to China eased $1.60 or 1.1% to US$141.20 per dry metric tonne. Australia's big two iron ore exporters had mixed fortunes in US trade overnight: BHP advanced 0.28% while Rio Tinto fell 1.59%.

    A patternless night on industrial metals markets saw copper ease in Europe and rise in the US, while other metals closed mixed. US copper for September delivery was recently up nearly two cents or 0.5% at US$3.36 a pound. In London, copper dipped 0.1%, lead 0.2%, nickel 1.1% and tin 1.5%. Aluminium put on 0.8% and zinc 0.3%.

    The major European markets snapped a five-session win streak as trading updates from bellwether companies added to pressures from across the Atlantic. Germany's DAX dropped 0.74%, France's CAC 0.52% and Britain's FTSE 1.59%.

    TRADING THEMES TODAY

    RETRACE REVS UP: Negative developments overnight, with the S&P 500 making a decisive broke below the 1675/1680 level that has provided support for the last five weeks. The slide arrested near the 50-day moving average, which hopefully will form the basis of a new support level. Otherwise the index could head a lot lower. A retrace was overdue and nothing to fear unless you're over-extended. If nothing else, we can look forward to a return to more attractive entry levels. Precious metals miners provided an island of green in a sea of red in the US overnight, with an index of gold/silver stocks charging 5.54%. Today is likely not a great day to announce earnings but among those in the firing line are STO, DUE, PXS and YAL.

    ECONOMIC NEWS: Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Guy Debelle is due to deliver a speech at 11.30am EST. Europe is scheduled to release trade, current account and consumer inflation figures tonight. Another solid night of US data includes building permits, housing starts, preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, preliminary quarterly non-farm productivity and preliminary quarterly unit labour costs.

    Good luck to all.

  2. 5hareholder

    5,361 posts.

    A huge night for gold. Given the amount of build up to this breakout, I wouldn't expect this move to be a one day wonder. US$1350 is broken, finally, and $1400 is now within reach. The next resistance for the XGD is at about 3,100 which is a 15% move from these levels.

  3. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    Overnight News

    TPET Tangiers Petroleum

    Close 15.75
    Change +0.12 (+0.79%)

    =(ASX)TPT....27.18/10 = $AUD .2718c





    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:TPET.L&display=summary&it=le




  4. skypiliot

    4,966 posts.

    expect DLS to rise to day on yesterdays announcement just before close of 157% increase in 2p reserves

  5. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    GOOD NEWS ALERT....

    Forget the "gloomy corporate earnings outlook" and concentrate on the positive NAHB.

    Yes sirree,the place where all this mess started,the US housing market is finally returning to normal.From FX Street:-

    NAHB Housing Market Index rises to 59 in August----

    The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 59 in August, from 56 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged.

    Actual=59

    Consensus=56

    Previous=56


    Yippeeee!!!!

    Good days ahead.

    64....bringing you all the GOOD NEWS.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0b4c7950-ff2f-420b-98b9-f81ea731b104

    Also at...

    http://www.forexfactory.com/#closed

  6. MemeFx

    1,978 posts.

    64 - thats sounding familiar!

  7. gttrain

    4,642 posts.

    PHM (Pulte)had a good day up over 5% and on the most active list.

  8. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    I spy...
    with my little eye...
    something starting with G....


    Yes....GOOD NEWS on GOLD

    Man,they are fighting over the stuff.Both China and India are scrambling for gold.Talk of smugglers bringing it in,jewellers not getting enough gold,people hoarding gold and Governments loading up.Gold price set to BOOM.

    Here,see what I mean:-

    Indian gold demand rose in July despite the government’s efforts to stifle it, and premiums are likely to increase further this fall when the country is in the midst of its festival season, analysts said.

    Following the Indian central bank’s introduction of further measures to curb gold imports, physical premiums have risen sharply in India,” said a research note from Commerzbank .

    Analysts cite data from the All India Gems & Jewelry Trade Association saying that premiums last week more than doubled week-on-week to around $10 per troy ounce.

    “Jewelers are clearly trying to secure supply for themselves before the import restrictions really start to bite,” Commerzbank said. “The All India Gems & Jewelry Trade Federation believes that there will be a shortage of gold in the festival season that runs from August to November.


    And this:-


    Bloomberg reports that the China Gold Association recently noted that purchases had risen by 54 percent to 706.4 metric tons in the first half of this year. Demand was up 87 percent for bars and 44 percent for jewelry.

    It’s widely expected that China will overtake India for that position sometime this year, and this anticipation appears to be carrying gold further up. Earlier in August, SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose by 0.2 percent to hit 911.13 tons—that’s the first such increase in two months.


    GREAT NEWS.....GOOD DAYS AHEAD.



    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/07/30/indian-gold-premiums-rise-as-physical-demand-picks-up-in-july/

    http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/china-will-boost-gold-prices/4586

  9. Daning

    2,716 posts.

    Massive night....

    Gold stocks to fly today for sure.

  10. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    some goldies...

    MML
    PIR
    NST
    RSG
    TRY
    SAR
    SLR
    GRY




  11. ericbasar

    1,627 posts.

    Thanks HLL.

    Morning all.

    TODAY'S FINANCIAL CALENDAR:

    (EZ) - CPI, Jul
    (EZ) - trade balance, Jun
    (US) - housing starts, Jul
    (US) - UMich consumer sentiment, Aug (initial)
    (US) - productivity, Q2
    (ADQ) - Full Year Results
    (AHE) - Full Year Results
    (ANZ) - quarterly report
    (AVY) - EGM
    (AZQ) - Full Year Results
    (CAA) - Full Year Results
    (CGH) - Full Year Results
    (CTT) - EGM
    (DUE) - Full Year Results
    (FDC) - Full Year Results
    (GHC) - Full Year Results
    (IAW) - Full Year Results
    (IRI) - Full Year Results
    (MCE) - Full Year Results
    (MIN) - Full Year Results
    (MMX) - Full Year Results
    (MMX) - EGM
    (MOL) - Full Year Results
    (NCK) - Full Year Results
    (ONT) - Full Year Results
    (PXS) - Full Year Results
    (RES) - Full Year Results
    (SOI) - EGM
    (STO) - Interim Results
    (TGP) - Full Year Results
    (TTA) - Annual General Meeting
    (VMG) - EGM
    (WMN) - EGM
    (YAL) - Interim Results

    Some of the economic news have been mentioned above as per HLL's report.

    ---

    Short retracement of the Aussie Dollar against the greenback suggests buying pressure. Follow through above 0.92 would test the descending trendline and resistance at 0.93. Breakout is unlikely, but would warn that the down trend is ending. Reversal below medium term support at 0.90 would warn of a decline to 0.87, with a long term target of 0.80.



    Target calculations: 0.90 – ( 0.93 – 0.90 ) = 0.87; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

    The greenback is headed for a test of primary support at ¥94 against the Yen. Breach of short term support at ¥96 would confirm. In the longer term, breach of primary support at ¥94 would signal a down trend with an initial target of ¥86, while recovery above ¥101.50 would indicate an advance to ¥108.



    Target calculation: 102 + ( 102 – 96 ) = 108; 94 – ( 102 – 94 ) = 86

    The Euro is consolidating between $1.32 and $1.34. Upward breakout would indicate a primary advance to $1.40, while reversal below $1.32 would warn of another test of primary support at $1.27. Close oscillation of 13 week Momentum around the zero line indicates hesitancy.



    Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

  12. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    C'mon....wakey,wakey everyone.....


    Coffee,weet-bix,juice and your live GOLD PRICE here.....


    http://www.goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html




  13. Daning

    2,716 posts.

    FAS

    Going to test the previously 52 weekly high of 2.4cents

    gap up on open

  14. Cleo

    1,431 posts.

    More graphite for TON:-

    64m of Graphite Mineralisation on Drill Section 4;
    ? Extends potential strike of graphitic mineralisation up to 2kms; and
    ? The graphitic mineralisation intersected appears to be on the same rock
    succession extending north-east from Syrah’s world-class graphite
    deposits.
    Triton Minerals Limited (ASX: TON, “Triton”, “the Company”) is pleased to confirm that additional drilling in the initial drilling program at the Cobra Plains prospect in the Balama North project, has intersected further significant graphitic mineralisation.

  15. Lioness

    1,181 posts.

    64 ... I'll have some of what you're having!

    Have a great day all.

  16. gttrain

    4,642 posts.

    64eheh

    How many coffees have you had? lol

  17. gttrain

    4,642 posts.

    Shaping up to be an interesting day.

  18. forty

    642 posts.

    I had a feelng the DOW would start to capitulate, this mat just be the start---

    Be careful traders, the debt in the US does not substantiate a high DOW as is currently showing---

    I can easily see 2000, to 4000 points wiped off in the next crash and i don't like to be pessimistic, it's not in my nature.

    The DOW has continued to rise whilst other markets in particular the All Ords has risen only TENTITIVELY---

    225 down on the Dow last night, this is the start IMHO

    Fort

  19. ICG does gold stuff, right? :)

    MYG too...

  20. krusty900

    2,503 posts.

    Been an interesting few weeks for me - trying to learn as much as I can and apply it.

    Many thanks to many on this thread

    Made a bad entry into PRU a few weeks back and took yesterday as an op to get out with a profit - then re-assess

    Looked at gold at some stage last night and thought good move....woke up this am - not so much:-)

    Timing is everything in this game - and its great when ones timing is good, not so much when its not

    Just watching today - especially goldies

  21. koro

    6,977 posts.

    on the DOW caterpillar and allco were the only 2 risers

    shame theres not more miningstocks on the DOW

    would help balance out the wobbles

  22. bossivic

    18,877 posts.

    ETE looking good to go on with it today

    lovely breakout

    headed back to 4.6c resistance/support imo

  23. mitta

    14,569 posts.

    Hi gang,

    Pattern scan for this morning plus a chart of NCM/XGD





    dyor

  24. MemeFx

    1,978 posts.

    Eric

    Very good list of earnings reports

  25. bossivic

    18,877 posts.

    forty

    I'm not worried about the DOW crashing

    The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) will keep the US at record highs

    Working away feverishly in their little bunker in the desert buying up stocks at the end of each day

  26. koro

    6,977 posts.

    traders have a look at todays TSX_60 chart

    canada stocks index rose overnight 1/2 %

    inverse to todays DOW action-

  27. mitta

    14,569 posts.

    Little support bounces or took out a bit of resistance.

    AGR ATP DVA NVI WBB

  28. gizard

    18,695 posts.

    lol timbo

    the ppt are relentless buyers, Elvis was a great choice of leader.

  29. Ben2010

    8,476 posts.

    Would expect some more movement on NEU today

  30. Endless

    16,843 posts.

    Krusty, when you sell at a profit, that's good timing. :>

    Buy low sell high. Everything else is a distraction. imo

  31. 13nugget

    1,503 posts.

    good morning all, search Movers % Gain



  32. bossivic

    18,877 posts.

    krusty

    my humble advice is focus on your exits more than your entries

    most people can buy ok

    it is when they sell that gets people into trouble

    I still manage to stuff exits most days

    it is the hardest part of trading as it is linked directly to the very powerful emotions of fear and greed

    Good luck in your quest - their is no job that comes close to trading imo

  33. J.W.Pepper

    1,659 posts.

    Actually TSX was up over 1% from its early morning low and finished strong in the green. Interesting that MBN finished up 11.76% on good volume. Noticed this morning some large sell orders at the top of the queue, will they stay?

  34. mitta

    14,569 posts.

    Breakout stocks

    KGD SGM ETE SAI NWH CXX CKA

    dyor

  35. 13nugget

    1,503 posts.

    search Volume Movers


  36. 13nugget

    1,503 posts.

    search Spikes up



    have a good day

  37. V8

    6,776 posts.

    just for interest MOD has a drill bit headed into a gigantic anomoly sitting below there high grade 1.5 million ounce gold project in NZ.

    if it lands uberspactobunto might be in order.

  38. krusty900

    2,503 posts.

    Cheers Endless and Timbo

    Hit the nail on the head - the exits are the hard part and not having patience when required and then having it when its not gets me.

    Getting better at getting the emotion out of it

    I should probably not be doing this at my other job anyways - so am pretty lucky at the minute.

  39. Haplo

    3,806 posts.

    Morning everyone

    This is a follow up article on a posting I made the other day. How politicians lately have been calling the mining boom over. Thought it very interesting.

    Iron ore boom vs. Rudd's doom

    ON the hustings and in his campaign ads, Kevin Rudd has been calling the mining boom over.

    "The truth is in 2013 the China resources boom is over," the Prime Minister said on July 11. At the leaders debate on Sunday: "The truth is, with the ending of the decade-long mining boom, we face new economic challenges." At almost any media opportunity, the mantra is repeated.

    But he must have forgotten to tell the Chinese -- the world's biggest buyer of mineral commodities.

    Ever since returning as PM on June 26, the price of iron ore -- Australia's biggest export by a big margin -- has not looked back as Chinese steelmakers frantically restock on the expectation that while there is a slowdown in the country's infrastructure and urbanisation boom, an economic growth rate of more than 7 per cent on an already greatly enlarged economy means it still needs to suck in vast amounts of the steelmaking raw material.

    Iron ore has surged by 26 per cent, or $US29.80 a tonne, to $US142.80 a tonne since Mr Rudd returned to the Lodge and began mapping a re-election strategy that in part at least, links the claimed end to the mining boom to Australia's ballooning budget deficits.
    But iron ore has now moved back to five-month highs measured in US dollars. In Australian dollars, the current price of $156.27 a tonne is the best since October 2011. The local price is now up by $33 a tonne, or 28 per cent, which if sustained over a full year would add $20 billion to export revenues.

    Copper and the rest of the metals complex have also moved up decisively in recent weeks, buoyed by the economic news out of China, the US and hopes of an improving Europe. Base and precious metal markets nevertheless remain volatile and well short of average prices achieved by the industry in the June half.

    That has not been the case with iron ore's stellar price performance -- one achieved against a wall of naysayers who have predicted a price crash in the current second half as rising production in the Pilbara, Brazil and increasingly Africa outstrips demand.

    In equity markets, the doom merchants continue to hold sway, giving Mr Rudd support on the halcyon days for iron ore being at an end. Atlas Iron is an example. The last time iron ore was trading at these levels, its share price was 75 per cent higher than yesterday's market price, $1.01.

    Atlas managing director Ken Brinsden said yesterday that the company fully expected that there would be volatility in iron ore prices. "But on average, we also expect we will continue to get a very good price for our iron ore," Mr Brinsden said.

    He said share prices not reflecting the current elevated iron ore price was a result of six to nine months of negativity around China's economy that had "been feeding on itself". And as for what Canberra has to say on the subject, Mr Brinsden said he had long argued that the outlook should be neither over-hyped nor understated. "The middle ground is best," he said.

    Speaking from Port Hedland yesterday, Fortescue chief executive Nev Power warned that the iron ore market was characterised by its fluctuations. "We will always see fluctuations in the iron ore price because the supply and demand balance changes," Mr Power said. Fortescue was moved into a drastic restructuring last year when iron ore prices plunged to $US80 a tonne.

    "What we saw last year was a massive destocking at a time when there was a lot of uncertainty within the Chinese economy," Mr Power said. "That's very different to what we see today. The Chinese economy is growing very strongly at 7.5 per cent and, on the size of the economy that it is this year, that's a bigger growth number than we saw at the peak in 2007.

    "These fluctuations will always occur due to restocking and destocking cycles, we don't see any major change from the trading range it's been in in the last six months."

    Since the start of the year the iron ore price has averaged $US135 a tonne. Despite the recent price surge, iron ore is short of its peak this year of $US158.90 a tonne on January 2, and the $US180 a tonne-plus all-time highs of 2011. Offsetting the retreat from all-time highs has been the massive growth in production, a theme that Resources Minister Gary Gray highlights with his references to the price-led boom becoming a production-led boom.

    The stand-off between where equity markets think iron ore is headed -- the consensus is for a retreat in the latter part of the year to $US120 a tonne, and lower again in future years -- and where it actually is, is tipped to have a range of impacts, according to Commonwealth Bank equity analysts.

    For Rio Tinto and BHP, it means the additional cashflow would assist in their focus on balance-sheet consolidation, bringing forward the time when the companies may begin returning capital. For Atlas and other juniors BC Iron, Mount Gibson and Gindalbie, the leverage to elevated iron ore prices was said to be "massive".

    "These companies are operating on earnings before interest and tax margins in the $20-$30-a- tonne range, so an extra $US10 a tonne "would result in large earnings and valuation upgrades". But like much of the equities market, the CBA analysts are expecting an eventual retreat in iron ore prices to an average of $US113 a tonne in 2014 and $US103 in 2015.

    On the current high prices, CBA said it appeared that Chinese steel output was performing against expectation, and India's iron ore trade was much higher relative to expectation.

    "Combined with weaker Chinese domestic supply growth, the iron ore market is currently tighter than most -- including us -- had thought," CBA said. It added that, relative to consensus, the iron ore price risk was "tilted to the upside in the near term".

  40. ericbasar

    1,627 posts.

    Cheers MemeFx, good to know you find them useful :)

  41. upbig

    212 posts.

    AYR
    GOLD
    AYR

  42. mitta

    14,569 posts.
    AUK..

    it fired yesterday

    dyor

  43. Daning

    2,716 posts.

    Add patience, discipline and TA into that equation also Krusty.

  44. Financier

    463 posts.

    FAS a bit of interest unless it gets pulled

    DYOR

  45. CEOChair

    3,353 posts.

    Breakout stocks: GTE will be up > 100% when it comes out of TH today or more likely Monday. DYOR

  46. bossivic

    18,877 posts.

    MCR looks great punters

    78c
    85c
    $1

    ST targets

  47. ozgoldtrader

    1,953 posts.

    as much as I like the gold story - many goldies have alrady risen the last few sessions as if these people buy before the rest knows - weird to comprehend - the people behind the wheel

    the big conspircay carrying on...

    what was this 400 t of gold being dropped on the futures market when it all went pear shaped..

    only to buy up the goldies cheap before the stimulus campaign falters and goldies in massive demand.. here we go

  48. Burnett

    14,080 posts.

    Hi Forty, MSC copper drill results due out soon ???

    Thanks gttrain for your post the other day re NXS !

  49. ozgoldtrader

    1,953 posts.

    to complete my thought about gold - trade very careful - these movements have nothing to do with logic and charts

    big honchos behind the curtains spin the wheel -

  50. HC Trader

    9,588 posts.

    MNC
    PRU
    GTE
    CCU
    should all cough up today

    DRA
    ESI/ESIO
    when they come out of TH

  51. ddd84

    65 posts.


    I wonder if PRU will get up close to the 0.80 mark

  52. 64eheh

    5,254 posts.

    very hard to call ozgoldtrader....

    it has form..

    back in 2009 it made a V-shaped recovery from an approx 30% fall($1000 down to $700)......can it do it again from this approx 30% fall($1800 down to $1200)

    Jury still out....follow the trend.





  53. suzie111

    728 posts.
  54. ozgoldtrader

    1,953 posts.

    64 - yes - besides all that today is a great day for gold - if you are in you make money today

    if you are out - think twice

  55. Endless

    16,843 posts.

    Gals n guys. The Morning thread is open.

    THIS THREAD IS CLOSED.

    Hope you didn't eat too many lollies at the Show Suzie.

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