Londoner
I did say almost certain, not certain.
The last production figures provided show 969 oz for the last week (week 3, Dec Q) and this is a fact. It is not unreasonable to expect that production will continue at this rate or improve for the remaining 10 weeks of the quarter. Due to a collection blunder towards the end of the previous quarter the first week of production this quarter will show as 1,105 oz which will be a boost to the quarterly total. This is also a fact. It is also a fact that PGI employ expert metallurgists who’s focus is to continually tweak and improve the recovery rate. Consequently production for the quarter is likely to look like this:
Wk 1, 1105. wk 2, 636. wk 3, 969. wk 8, 636. and the other 9 weeks @ 969 or better. I am very confident that the production figures will be in the order of about 12,100 oz and exceed the forecast of 11,050 (850 x 13) by nearly 10%.
I have zero confidence however, that this figure will translate to the $5m FCF that you predict. The $5m is not certain, most improbable I would suggest. The FCF topic has been worked in detail by Paul 100 in previous posts and if my memory is correct his figure was less than $3m - maybe it is you that suffers from too much self belief ! My figure is close to $4m.
Oscar
BJ purchased on 23/12/14 so I can’t see any problems, the quarterly figure would not have been available then (but he obviously knew what the figures were for the first 12 weeks of the quarter). To me the significant point is that if the production total looked remotely like it would be below forecast he would not have made such a large purchase. He is clearly very positive and I believe he is most likely relying on fundamental knowledge not TA.
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