How can an increase in Chinese demand from 75% to 90% be a positive for Lynas, but an increase from 68% to 82% for phosphors be a negative? I don't think you understand your own chart, which is probably why you consistently get Lynas' prospects wrong.
Basic analysis shows that the demand has shifted significantly to China across all five segments. 90% of global demand for magnets is now from China; all the manufacturing is moving there from the ROW. As shown by earlier articles posted here about Chinese exports of magnet metals decreasing, as new magnet production facilities open up there.
All this postulating about export tariffs, VAT rebates etc.etc. is becoming increasingly marginalised as all the demand for the REE centralises in China.
Lynas' prospects can only improve if they get a large huge rise in the ASP, or cut their cost/kg in half. Or a combination of the two. If your chart is correct then it is only bad for Lynas in two senses: their main geographical segment is China, regardless which country does the buying; and the illegal REE producers in China don't even have to smuggle their contraband across borders anymore, the market is all at home.
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