At 30th Sept LYC had $17 mil cash (burned $21 mil for Sept qtr)
-Insto placement covered deferred Oct $10 mil debt payment.
-rights issue raised about $68 mil net
-so cash now ought to be about $85 mil (ann said $81 mil cash post rights issue)
Dec Qtr:
-Let's assume Dec Qtr cash burn is $15 mil
-that would leave $70 mil cash.
Mar Qtr
-Let's assume Mar Qtr cash burn is $10 mi
-loan repayment is $15 mil.
-that would leave $45 mil cash
June Qtr
-Let's assume june Qtr cash burn is $5 mil
-loan repayment is $15 mil
-that would leave $25 mil cash
Sept Qtr
-let's assume Sept Qtr is cashflow neutral
-loan repayment is $30 mil
that would leave $5 mil shortfall.
So, IMO, the 9c options will have to be triggered
sometime between April & June 2015 assuming that
the price of the LYC basket stays as is because LYC is not likely to let
the cash reserve drop below $20 mil.
( IMO, there is as much chance of the basket dropping
in price as there is of it increasing; hence the assumption
that the price will remain as is. Also, I assume that there will not be
any abnormal plant update/repair costs over the next year although there
has been some mention of a $24 mil plant upgrade.)
So, IMO, if LYC cannot reduce its cash burn in the next 2 Qtrs,
then it will have to get the SP high enough before June to trigger the options.
likely scenario, IMO:
-a concerted effort to lift the SP in Feb-Mar to trigger the options
mm
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At 30th Sept LYC had $17 mil cash (burned $21 mil for Sept qtr)...
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