Hi Loki,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Im not so sure you can 100% bank on the POG to fall through $1180 (US) based on the Fed stopping QE and I will give you my reason why. When the Fed announced that they were thinking of tapering in (I think it was May last year) the market moved quite heavily including the 10 year treasury up over 3% at one point. I thought that when they started tapering that the yield would increase to around 3.5% but the market moved on Ben Bernenkes May call and actually went backwards since and look where the 10 year is now!
Why did I tell you that? Because if the market works on the same basis as above - the market has already priced in the end of QE it really just depends how much the market believes that the Fed will raise rates and when that will occur. Balancing that you also have the ECB considering QE, however, you may see them stay on the sidelines a bit longer because of the huge fall in the euro which may mean less upward pressure on the dollar.
Personally, and I dont usually sit on the fence but I think it is 50/50 and I have positioned myself on that basis. If the POG doesnt fall through $1180 by April-June next year I believe the worst will be over and the Fed will be forced to start QE again but this time it may not be buying treasuries - who knows?
How will this affect SLR? The US dollar is the biggest enemy of the SLR share price in my view. IF the dollar strengthens further and ours therefore falls then foreign investors will continue to withdraw capital from our markets and the SLR share price will fall. If the POG breaks $1180 on a stronger dollar then this could easily move into the teens as you say and I will be waiting with a pile of cash to buy if gold falls to the $935 mark.
What I will also say is if the POG falls to US1000 then I expect the aussie to be around 70 cents. So for aussie based investors it is my opinion this is the opportunity of a lifetime as the aussie gold price will most likely still be around $1300.
All of the above could be completely wrong but thats my view.
Please DYOR.
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Last
$1.24 |
Change
0.050(4.20%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.159B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.22 | $1.24 | $1.21 | $5.432M | 4.426M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4028 | $1.24 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$1.24 | 30853 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4028 | 1.235 |
3 | 28524 | 1.230 |
2 | 31015 | 1.225 |
1 | 4028 | 1.220 |
3 | 17296 | 1.215 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.240 | 30853 | 2 |
1.245 | 12262 | 5 |
1.250 | 197832 | 21 |
1.255 | 69648 | 7 |
1.260 | 88344 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 29/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
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Last updated 15.59pm 29/03/2024 ? |
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