Hi psi81, I thought the comments you and paulharris made in the “Can Lightning Strike Twice?” thread (June 17-22) about CTP’s Reserves eluded to these numbers being potentially plausible. In any case, I guess only time will tell what RC has up his sleeve.
The following is out this morning in AFR (with a paywall as usual)… if anyone has access to the full RBC research note or analysis it would no doubt be an interesting read.
http://www.copyright link/business/energy/apa-in-pole-position-to-nab-nt-link-rights-20150714-gichaa
APA in pole position to nab NT Link rights
by Sarah Thompson | Anthony Macdonald | Jake Mitchell
RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Johnston says an analysis of the economics of the NT Link suggests a high probability of proceeding, "with APA Group at a competitive advantage to secure the rights."
Johnston sees APA's growth profile as under-appreciated and with an ability to surprise on the distribution over time, reinforcing his "outperform" recommendation and $9.25 price target.
RBC's analysis shows NT Link is likely to proceed "given high LNG development capex, oil-linked east coast gas prices and a potential supply shortage."
Johnston says an existing gas supply contract of the NT utility together with production out of the Meerenie gas field will underwrite about 44 per cent of the pipeline capacity.
"The balance could be underwritten by a multitude of suppliers," Johnston writes in a research note to clients on Wednesday. "Santos is the natural buyer/aggregator of the gas given the reserve position of GLNG and rights to existing pipeline capacity."
Should APA win the right to develop the NT Link, RBC sees its growth capex likely exceeding its $300 million to $400 million per annum guidance range over the medium-term.
"This is additive to value," Johnston says. "An announcement on the NT Government tender is likely in September."
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