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STX 9.6¢

Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March 2012

  1. ASX News

    94,761 posts.
    • Release Date: 08/03/12 09:38
    • Summary: Investor Roadshow Presentation March 2012
    • Price Sensitive: No
    • Download Document
  2. Hardcash

    3,318 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    no new news here but this preso is well constructed and clearly articulates the STX value offer!

    IMHO the success or otherwise of this preso is going to determine the funding options for STX going forward - now is the time to test the attractiveness of these assets on the market but who are they targeting? An O&G insto for farmin or finance on its own?

    Reckon STX would sell Gulf Coast conventional assets to fund EFS is it cam to that but they may prefer to keep their cashflow and farmin or fund future with debt facility.

    It would be good to know if this preso is for US & Euro investors here in Aus or if STX is on the road shopping for options.

    My only concern is if STX are shopping O/S... WHY...when there are supposedly so many in Aus sniffing for opportunities - have they all walked away?

    Pure spec!

    Interesting times indeed!


  3. garggs

    570 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    As I have said the management in this company are not the sharpest tooools in the shed ,they would be praying they hit otherwise it's all over for the share price in my opinion !

  4. rexsh

    2,612 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Garggs, Carnegie and Co. obviously dont share your view...and they are not dumb I can assure you of that.

  5. garggs

    570 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    If there not dumb like you say! Why would they underwrite a capital raise cheaper than what the share price was after they already had the money raised .ALl that did was cost the share holders a couple off hundred thousand that they didn't have ,money could off been better spent for drilling.one off the dumbest things I have ever seen in my opinion !

  6. Hardcash

    3,318 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    are you a disgruntled ex employee of STX by any chance?

    You have been registered since 2009 and never contributed to STX discussions until very recently, all of which has been overtly irate towards Mgt.

    What is the grievance?


  7. garggs

    570 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    No def not an ex employer,just making a valid point.

  8. Hardcash

    3,318 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    sorry but I cannot see how $100k of wasted shareholders funds (if it was wasted) would make you that angry??

    There is a lot of back scratching that goes on in the small spec end of the market like this, all the time, its how biz is done. These anomalies are common place and the truth is we don't really know why the decision was made to underwrite an oversubscribed placement, do we, we never will?

    To this day STX have never told us the whole story of what happened at PEL96 3 yrs ago. Sometimes Directors can't tell the truth for fear of offending important outsiders, better to say nothing than burn industry affiliates. Same goes for Baniyas title...

    You just have to trust that Mgt are doing things in the best interests of shareholders - Mgt own 14% of STX! My point is that they have plenty of skin in STX and they have a BIG vested interest in success!

    On for the ride or off - simple decision!


  9. dc1234

    754 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    I am impressed by the presentation. It is well written and has a very optimistic flavour. Hope this flavour is savoured by would be investors. As we know, potential is great, currently very undervalued, and next few months could be company changing period.

    Well for those that want to find faults, they are in wrong type of stock. Stocks of this nature sometime have to do things to get going if things have not worked out as expected. There will always be a number of questions that are difficult to answer. But that is why they are where they are.

    As I am not a very long termer, I can see that some of the drillings did not work out in a positive way. For company of this size, they can have their back to the walls and may have to take some unpleasant decisions if some things don’t work out. The drill could have gone either way, and we all know that there is some element of luck involved in that – it is no sure thing, and I can see they have been unlucky. But this could change very quickly. One successful drill and suddenly the doors start opening. I am hoping this time Strike be lucky, and the odds are very good as well, and we can move forward. The management do own a good amount of shares which is also evident in the way they are promoting the company.

    We may be at a threshold where things could move quickly. We have seen what has happened to say BPT, DLS, SXY, maybe Strike’s turn is next. Of course there is an element of risk, that is why the market cap is 80m, otherwise with their lease itself they could be between 200-300.

    Please dyor as I may be biased and have not focused on negative things. But I understand the risk and comfortable to add more at these levels.


  10. estseon

    1,642 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    The Eagle Landing acreage is continuing to increase. Last November, net acreage was 8,050. Now it is 27.5% of about 31,000 acres, 8,500.

  11. pisces

    10,365 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    good analysis DC, yes there have been problems ,yes there are some risks ,but this company is moving forward pro actively at last.As you point out MC is massively undervalued if something falls their way

  12. estseon

    1,642 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Slide 10 seems to confirm the game plan for the EFS. My guess is:

    They are assembling a large acreage (slide 9)

    They will undoubtedly try to assemble contiguous acreage - highest value - fewest boundaries (and therefore less drilling restrictions) & easiest for infrastructure. The area indicated is huge so there will probably be at least a couple of blocks.

    They are letting their neighbours prove up acreage to the west and south. At least 15 wells during 2012.

    1st Drilling next quarter.

    Looking to sell on at a price of up to $30k/acre - perhaps more.

    The well spacing of 120 acres is far too conservative in that region on contiguous acreage.

  13. tui

    3,675 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Gavin Wendt of Minelife ( who I subscribe to ) has just put out a bullish analysis on STX particularly in reference to its market cap versus its peers. He has added it to his portfolio.

    Hes think STX will start to catch up shortly.

  14. dc1234

    754 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Good to see that tui. We have been toying with 18.5 three times in last 10 days, I think we will break this short term resistance today.


  15. dccm4417

    33 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Hi Tui,
    Can you pls attach Gavin Wendt's anlaysis with us - Thanks

  16. tui

    3,675 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Best you email Gavin and ask him. I am sure he would send you a copy. Good to see interest in STX is on the rise.

  17. Hardcash

    3,318 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    hi guys

    It has been my experience that industry guru's don't mind having their info published on H/Cop occasionally if you ask them. It often brings them much wanted exposure and resultant business.....

    Just an idea

  18. estseon

    1,642 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...


    interesting point about mkt cap.

    Mkt cap increases both through appreciation in value of assets (if recognised by the market) and through capital raisings.

    Capital raisings that increase NAV/share are, by definition, value enhancing for shareholders.

    AUT provides a lesson in point. It is just a few days over 2 years since I invested first in AUT at 42c/share. The Mkt cap was then about A$94m. The price and mkt cap now are 359c and about A$1.5bn. Shares in issue when I invested 2 years ago were 224m and now about 420m. So, share price 8.5x and mkt cap nearly 16x.

    What we want to see is a multiple increase in the share price. To get there, new capital will have to be raised. But, if STX can do in the next 2 years what AUT has done over the last 2 years, I doubt that many will be complaining.

    Increased mkt cap alone is vanity. Increased NAV/share is what we want. If the management get it right, now, and stick to the unconventional formations, it should happen, if lady luck smiles upon us.

    The AUT mkt cap suggests $90k/acre for its holdings in the Karnes county AMIs. That valuation is expected to increase by a multiple as closer spacing etc is proved up. The STX presentation suggests up to $30k/acre for Eagle Landing JV acreage. It could be conservative once proved up.

    "Once proved up" is difficult to guess in terms of wells drilled but Marathon was talking to Hilcorp, the former operator of AUT's acreage, at a time when there was about 1 well drilled per 2,000 gross acres. That would translate into about 16 wells for Eagle Landing, or about 4.5 net wells to STX.

    That gives an idea of the capital needed. The level of dilution will depend upon success with the current drilling, good PR and management focus.

    The presentation released a few days ago suggests that the "new leadership team" has both that focus and experience in unconventional formations.

  19. vagabondo

    1,117 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    good to see STX has annouced the minelife research, not a bad read.

    Cheers, vaga

  20. JiggyJigs

    825 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    Nice to get some positive exposure from some different analysts. Also extremely nice to be in the 20's again. It's been a while.

    Congrats to everyone who participated in the raisings and have been topping up for the long haul. Hopefully we'll have some good news in coming weeks/months!


  21. pgabz

    299 posts.
    re: Ann: Investor Roadshow Presentation March...

    rbs have valued senex uncoventional gas exploration assets in cooper basin at $438 per acre.senex holdings probably more prospective than strikes holdings[on my reading anyway] and certianly more advanced. strike have 4 million acres net in the cooper basin.at 20c strike could be seen as a sitting duck. thankfully no beach as a shareholder or dominant shareholder [as in adelaide energy case] prepared to sell cheap.speculatively exciting it is.

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