Rabbi, firstly, the $68 you mention, is actually in AUD, so there is no further benefit with the AUD being low right now. What we need is the POO is rise above approx US$57 to actually rise above the base rate of the hedge (the hedging announcement was released on the 19 Dec, when WTI was priced at approx US$57). With the AUD at approx $0.83, that gives us about AUD $68.
So the POO would need to rise at least US $9 for SXY to actually earn more from their production.
I think Elliots estimate is probably close, although I am going to raise it a little, to 20% drop in revenue.
I am also going to estimate that SXY cash position will drop to approx $64 million. As SXY has been drilling a lot of exploration wells in the past quarter. Also setting up Hornet for production, plus bringing other wells online.
Sorry, but I am going to end on a negative, at what number (cash position) will the market actually start penalizing SXY...? (if its not already, i.e. increasing short position).
SXY Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held