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TPT 0.9¢

$19/50% cos ... why not $6 before the drill?

  1. freebeer

    163 posts.

    please explain anybody ... clearly 25 cents is just a very small fraction of that pre drill target

  2. strauss

    13,740 posts.

    If you could explain your maths first Freeber

    50% of $19 is $9.50 so Im interested to know how you got $6

    Also the Oil BESBS doesnt work like this its usually 10% so $1.90 at most

  3. freebeer

    163 posts.

    exactly ... what i hate is misleading headlines on these posts ... this one appeared after the broker report ... just rubbish ... thot i wud provide a more reasonable view ... ie for a start $6 is not $8.50 ... the report talked about 50cents target first ... IMHO just misleading

  4. rhysj123

    21 posts.

    Happy for someone to correct me but i think its because 50% cos of $19 target was pulled out of someones a$$.
    I don't think CoS of TPT getting to the point where the well is producing commercial oil, which would value the company at $19ps, is anywhere near 50%.
    Don't actually know where 50% has come from although i haven't had chance to read that latest broker report in detail so i'm likely wrong.
    Would love someone to explain because if theres a 50% chance of TPT share price increasing almost 50 fold i'll need to remortgage the house.

  5. strauss

    13,740 posts.

    I was the second post on that topic and the first question I asked was where do you get the 50% COS from

    Anyway 25c is still a long way from $1.90 and thats the better way to look at it

  6. homeboy

    154 posts.

    From day 1 when I got it and the initial unproven estimates were coming in - I was working off a ballpark of 1,5bn to 2.0bn bbls
    Call it 1.7bn basis 3% total extractable oil =53mill bbl and assigned value of say $10/bbl gives you $530mill on 140mill shares = $3.78/share
    The potential quality here off-shore morocco must be over $100/bbl now in the market and the 3% figure is very very conservative from all the discussions I had with e&p guys

    But it's this immense upside potential that got me. Also one might be out massively on the calcs - if total extractable goes to 10% we talking $1.5bn firm or $10/share, so numbers are not inconceivable
    What i am sure of is we will either be at 5cents or multiples of dollars in 12-24 months
    My bet is the latter. Firm is too cheap and will be a takeover target if things start motoring.

  7. jeffo

    1,372 posts.

    with regards to success there are a number of values that can be used, depends on how you look at it.

    Geological Probability of Success (POS)or Pg is 24% for trident, something like 13% for TMA and 9% assaka (don't quote me on the last two just did it from memory)

    However as an investor I prefer to use the value of a financial Chance of Success (COS) so I can compare one company against another.

    Don't forget there are 3 zones we are drilling with one drill. So based on the POS we use the formula (1-24%)*(1-13%)*(1-9%) equals a 60% chance of failure or a 40% Chance of Success

    Useful when comparing TPT versus PVD. They give a COS of 32% (according to broker report) but TPT has a 40% COS in comparison.

    Then again you could toss a coin and say its a 50/50 chance of success!!

  8. If we are indeed looking at a 40% COS then the current sp seems ridiculously low. I really wish I had more funds to bankroll this but 43,000 shares could still prove quite rewarding I hope. GLA.

  9. ML250A

    872 posts.

    Its always a 50/50 in my mind, they either have oil or they don't.
    I personally think they do

  10. mrthrifty

    416 posts.

    ML, I was going to post one of those boring glass half full or half empty pics but thought this one was a little more apt.

    Nothing better than a healthy dose of optimism I say !

  11. ML250A

    872 posts.

    Ild be happy with either

  12. strauss

    13,740 posts.

    Im thinking a run to $1 pre drilling is a real possibility

    Im seeing more aggressive action out of the UK and I think they will be the drivers like they were with the RRS/RMP high impact drilling in Africa and Georgia last year

  13. vamman

    140 posts.

    So whats happening now fellas

    Institutions must have stopped buying and now share price going up

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