1. Most Discussed
  2. Gainers & Losers
Click here to continue to HotCopper
  1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.
  2. Join HotCopper today

    HotCopper is the largest stock market forum in Australia with over 250,000 registered members and more than 6,000 posts per day. Membership is FREE. Join now!

  3. Hi everyone, Existing tipping portfolios have been cleared for end of January. You're all reset with $50,000 tipping cash for February. Happy tipping! Please be aware of our new rule on the volumes, to be eligible the stock needs avg volume over the last 3 month at least $250,000 and for the newer companies the current daily volume needs to be at least $50,000
TPT 0.9¢

$19/50% cos ... why not $6 before the drill?

  1. freebeer

    163 posts.

    please explain anybody ... clearly 25 cents is just a very small fraction of that pre drill target

  2. strauss

    13,201 posts.

    If you could explain your maths first Freeber

    50% of $19 is $9.50 so Im interested to know how you got $6

    Also the Oil BESBS doesnt work like this its usually 10% so $1.90 at most

  3. freebeer

    163 posts.

    exactly ... what i hate is misleading headlines on these posts ... this one appeared after the broker report ... just rubbish ... thot i wud provide a more reasonable view ... ie for a start $6 is not $8.50 ... the report talked about 50cents target first ... IMHO just misleading

  4. rhysj123

    19 posts.

    Happy for someone to correct me but i think its because 50% cos of $19 target was pulled out of someones a$$.
    I don't think CoS of TPT getting to the point where the well is producing commercial oil, which would value the company at $19ps, is anywhere near 50%.
    Don't actually know where 50% has come from although i haven't had chance to read that latest broker report in detail so i'm likely wrong.
    Would love someone to explain because if theres a 50% chance of TPT share price increasing almost 50 fold i'll need to remortgage the house.

  5. strauss

    13,201 posts.

    I was the second post on that topic and the first question I asked was where do you get the 50% COS from


    Anyway 25c is still a long way from $1.90 and thats the better way to look at it

  6. homeboy

    154 posts.

    From day 1 when I got it and the initial unproven estimates were coming in - I was working off a ballpark of 1,5bn to 2.0bn bbls
    Call it 1.7bn basis 3% total extractable oil =53mill bbl and assigned value of say $10/bbl gives you $530mill on 140mill shares = $3.78/share
    The potential quality here off-shore morocco must be over $100/bbl now in the market and the 3% figure is very very conservative from all the discussions I had with e&p guys

    But it's this immense upside potential that got me. Also one might be out massively on the calcs - if total extractable goes to 10% we talking $1.5bn firm or $10/share, so numbers are not inconceivable
    What i am sure of is we will either be at 5cents or multiples of dollars in 12-24 months
    My bet is the latter. Firm is too cheap and will be a takeover target if things start motoring.

  7. jeffo

    1,372 posts.

    with regards to success there are a number of values that can be used, depends on how you look at it.

    Geological Probability of Success (POS)or Pg is 24% for trident, something like 13% for TMA and 9% assaka (don't quote me on the last two just did it from memory)

    However as an investor I prefer to use the value of a financial Chance of Success (COS) so I can compare one company against another.

    Don't forget there are 3 zones we are drilling with one drill. So based on the POS we use the formula (1-24%)*(1-13%)*(1-9%) equals a 60% chance of failure or a 40% Chance of Success

    Useful when comparing TPT versus PVD. They give a COS of 32% (according to broker report) but TPT has a 40% COS in comparison.

    Then again you could toss a coin and say its a 50/50 chance of success!!

  8. If we are indeed looking at a 40% COS then the current sp seems ridiculously low. I really wish I had more funds to bankroll this but 43,000 shares could still prove quite rewarding I hope. GLA.

  9. ML250A

    872 posts.

    Its always a 50/50 in my mind, they either have oil or they don't.
    I personally think they do

  10. mrthrifty

    415 posts.

    ML, I was going to post one of those boring glass half full or half empty pics but thought this one was a little more apt.



    Nothing better than a healthy dose of optimism I say !

  11. ML250A

    872 posts.

    Ild be happy with either

  12. strauss

    13,201 posts.

    Im thinking a run to $1 pre drilling is a real possibility

    Im seeing more aggressive action out of the UK and I think they will be the drivers like they were with the RRS/RMP high impact drilling in Africa and Georgia last year

  13. vamman

    140 posts.

    So whats happening now fellas

    Institutions must have stopped buying and now share price going up

DISCLAIMER:
Before making any financial decisions based on what you read, always consult an advisor or expert.

The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd. Any information posted on the website has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and as such, you should before acting on the information or advice, consider the appropriateness of the information or advice in relation to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please be aware that any information posted on this site should not be considered to be financial product advice.

From time to time comments aimed at manipulating other investors may appear on these forums. Posters may post overly optimistic or pessimistic comments on particular stocks, in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for management to moderate all posts so some misleading and inaccurate posts may still appear on these forums. If you do have serious concerns with a post or posts you should report a Terms of Use Violation (TOU) on the link above. Unless specifically stated persons posting on this site are NOT investment advisors and do NOT hold the necessary licence, or have any formal training, to give investment advice.

^
Top