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SDL 2.3¢

“sundance did not welcome that bid from hanlon

  1. westcott

    7,472 posts.

    Hi baukaw.

    No not in the low teens.
    I was a share holder when it was St Francis looking to sell to the Indonesians their gas products.
    They then bought a copper tenement I believe it was in Peru,South America anyway. They then became Sundance Resources.

    Regards
    Westcott.

  2. nemu

    344 posts.

    The current crop may not have sold HL any shares but the result is the same.

    "Do you think the big 3 or 4 are worried about upsetting China, honestly? I don't think so"

    The big 3 or 4 may not be worried but chances are high they will not risk upsetting China over SDL


    "Only 6 of the 10 or 12 are Chinese. If you were right in your assumptions,SDL would only be talking and working with 6 Chinese companies."

    They could talk to 50 non Chinese companies for all I care. As long as they are working with the Chinese they will do as they are told (by the Chinese)

  3. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    Hi nemu , I think the big3 upsets China everyday by selling ore to them at $130/t rather than at $50/t a tonne if they wanted to mine and ship as fast as they can.

    The Big3 are answerable to shareholders and have to do the right thing by the sovereign government that own the resources in the ground (Canberra will never allow IO to be dumped to line the pocket of Communist China even if our finances were not stuffed)

    China for years has threatened boycott, attacked the Platt price platform, pulled restocking stunt that blew up in her face and went on a senseless rant on the NDRC web site and through the media.

    When they thought they had Sundance in the bag they boasted and gloated about breaking the stranglehold of the IO cartel. That tells you the anger and frustration had built up for years.

    But the Chinese who always want something for free at others expense just had to betray Sundance in tearing up the SIA on the false pretext of lower IO pricing lasting just a few weeks. Pathetic really.

    When you need to import 70% and soon probably 80% of all IO when you gobble up everything there is while owning NOTHING other than crappy high cost, low production magnetite resources with massive cost blowouts and outright failures of even getting production up after years for heavens sakes, you have got NO SAY.

    Now how do you purpose China can retaliate?

    Suppose owning the New Pilbara may be a small step on a long hard journey.

    China is stuffed!

  4. westcott

    7,472 posts.

    Hi (nemu)

    Are Glencore Xstrata going to do as the Chinese tell them with their interest in Core Mining which is dependent on the SDL Rail and Port?

    Regards
    Westcott.

  5. nemu

    344 posts.

  6. westcott

    7,472 posts.

    Hi nemu.

    I agree,the Board has to finally get their act together.

    At this time the company that holds the rights to build the Rail and Port I believe is SDL.

    Why leave Glencore Xtrata out of it? They own a percentage of Core Mining's shares also Severstal Steel Mills have a percentage of Core Mining shares.
    In other words a part owner Buyer/Supplier and a part owner Buyer Steel Mill.

    Regards
    Westcott.

  7. AverageJoe

    6,286 posts.

    Baukaw,

    Interesting article from a different perspective rather than the usual pom pom cheering on the Chinese boom.

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/08/conspiracies-behind-iron-ores-price-surge/

  8. baukaw

    2,725 posts.

    AverageJ

    Very interesting article. .....

    But will be ripped to shreds by the cheer squad

    Still think sdl is cum a raise unfortunately

  9. nine lives

    12,247 posts.

    at the end of the day it gets down to that old saying "The market is never wrong". Plenty of people have gone broke holding a position against the market trend because they convinced themselves that the market was wrong and would eventually come to its senses. It is very easy to form a view, right or wrong, and then find evidence to support your view. I have personally made that mistake many times. At the end of the day it is just best to listen to what the market is telling you. ATM it is telling us that IO is doing OK.

  10. baukaw

    2,725 posts.

    Nine lives

    Agreed

    Whats the SDL market telling us??

    Market trend for sdl wrong or right?

  11. shares007

    1,973 posts.

    LOL, the wall of sellers is telling the story here at the moment.

  12. nine lives

    12,247 posts.

    The Hanlon deal could not have fallen over at a worse time. Back then the outlook for IO was bleak and so, as rich as the SDL deposit is, no one else wanted to touch it because of the obvious capex issues against a bearish outlook for IO. But I tend to agree with GJ in that the damage has already been done. The SP then was peaking around 40c and now it is sub 10c. So now with IO looking not so bleak it is likely some renewed interest in....or dare I even hope some competition for....SDL may well be on the cards. I would not expect the daily movements of SDL to follow the price of IO like, say, AGO but the longer IO prices defy bearish expectations the more interest will return to SDL. At the moment the last 2 minor run ups in price were very neatly capped by the 50 day ema but maybe it will be third time lucky and if SDL can break through the 50 day ema then perhaps it might hover around 12c at that gap resistance as it anticipates the finalization of a funding agreement. IMHO a finance deal would then see it go cacto and leapfrog that huge gap. It's still speculation for sure but IMHO the upside from this traumatized price is possibly about 10 times the downside.

  13. Conspiracies - what a joke that article is:


    1. Iron ore imports at record highs and rising
    2. Steel production at record highs and rising
    3. If article is true, why have inventories only risen 2%
    4 .I have already posted the difference between capacity and production. If you don't know, look them up.
    5. Are the banks stupid enough not to look at inventory days, debtor days etc. DO you know these measures?
    6. Even if there is difficulty, SOE's are backed by the state

  14. bouhr

    297 posts.

    Hi nine

    Totally agree...

    I believe the dark days are a mile behind us #Holders#.

    Technically, the SP is hovering around the 50ma and resembles the 2008/2009 pattern. The RSI and MACD is also in favor.

    I've noticed the other day when GJ or Gallelio mentioned the about 95% of SDL volume has exchanged hands, and that in my understanding, it could be a signal to the smart money that sp has suffered enough and it is time to release the price upword.

    So i think we close if not bottomed out already.

    cheers

    bouhr

  15. angor532

    1,414 posts.

    good post sundance,

    point 5 is on the money - would the banks be that stupid to determine the health of a busines purely by seeing if the furnace is switced on or not.

    the article would have us beleive that
    the steel mills are tricking the banks into thinking that all is going well by keeping the blast furnaces running and stockpiling steel.....LOL sound like another barking lion story.... hehe



  16. nine lives

    12,247 posts.

    Bouhr, the most interesting thing about the SDL chart lately, in my humble opinion, was how the 50 day ema has stopped the last 2 rallies in their tracks. I recall that when the stock retraced after the last rally in late July someone here asked "what the hell just happened"...well daytraders is what happened. They would be all over the chart and the 50 would be an obvious exit point......But really when it gets down to it I don't think the chart can predict too much of what is about to happen next. That will depend on finance. If SDL negotiate a decent deal and if IO price can continue to hold up then the upside could take it back to where it was before. IE an instant 30c rise. If Baukaw and his mates are indeed correct and no finance deal is forthcoming then a CR is inevitable. Common sense would dictate that the board raise just enough to keep going in the hope of buying more time...so maybe 20% dilution at 5c?? that would give them 30 mill to keep things ticking along while they continue to look for a partner. So the downside might be 3c for now as opposed to 30c upside in the event of a deal. It is a gamble but they have the goods as far as metal in the ground and the price of IO is favourable. Punters need to weigh these things up and take into account the crash in IO just did not happen as was predicted at the start of the year. My feeling is that conditions may be right now to attract a reasonable finance deal.... so given the relatively huge possible upside it's a reasonable punt IMHO.


    FWIW here's the chart for anyone interested showing the 50 day ema killing the last 2 rallies. Should it break up through on the next attempt and if finance is still not announced when that happens then 12c could be next resistance as that was the highest price since the gap down.

  17. shares007

    1,973 posts.

    Thanks for that. It's interesting to see how chartists see the rise and falls. I just see it as the Sundance pump and dump. It used to be pumped up to 38 cents on good news in a similar way.

  18. bouhr

    297 posts.

    Hi Nine,

    0.088 is the short term Resistance(remember when price moved from 0.12 to 0.088(was short term support)). Having broken once and now hovering around it for almost a week, it tells me that it may not hold.

    IMHO, the trend is up and will be confirmed one the sp breaks through 0.09 and 0.12(medium to long term resistance) on a good volume.

    As for the target, we all know that there are few gaps to fill, including the 200ma which sets around 0.25-0.3.

    I personally tend to ignore the daily share price movements because they create too much noise, the weekly chart is my guide.

    About the capital raising, i believe can not afford too much dilution to the sp at these levels. Especially 5Cents, that will value the whole company approx $150m, and china stake at less than $15m.

    In saying the above, we all know that everything is possible in share market, but cash and patience are ultimate winners.

    cheers

  19. AverageJoe

    6,286 posts.

    Nine, to me it wasn't smart to hold on @30 odd cents hoping for a 45C payback against a big gap down when a deal falls over. The signs were screaming with the countless delays and games. The more this project gets delayed with funding the less it sees the light of day. Meanwhile plenty of Oz producers are ramping up production and that include Chinese interest in WA. I don't think they are that stupid to be the Johnny come lately investor looking for 'strategic' assets. Probably far cheaper to make a takeover at current SP plus 30% industry standard appreciation of first round offers. Or they could just wait and stalk until all the shareholders are desperate when supply outstrips demand coupled with a slowing of their economy. The permutation of bad events are endless...

  20. It actually is an interesting article
    thanks to the poster
    It starts off bullish
    than adds a few bits of fluff to make it extremely bearish

  21. bouhr

    297 posts.

    Average,

    I dont know where to start. Anyway it is good to be average in your thinking as long as you are not believing yourself to the absolute limit.

    There is alway a more knowlegeablle person than most of us.

    You can mention as many australian companies as you like, starting from fmg, mgx, ago, grr, bci , gbg and so on, what was their high?

    Everyone know they are high cost producers, unfortunately a lot of people forget to add these variables to the equation.

    To be more conservative, a cost of say $40/t of ore leave the company with a very healthy profit.

    Yes I understand that sundance is not very appealing to a lot investors, but once the good news starts to come through, it will a bit late.

    Unfortunately, this is a forum, with a lot of hidden agenda and manipulation.

    So, good luck with your investment strategies and I hope you achieve what in here for.

    Bouhr

  22. SilentO

    777 posts.

    If you believe this chartist rubbish you are bonkers.

    Do you think the directors of SDL are sitting in their cocktail bars thinking how they are going to close some gap on the share price? No. If they are dinkum they are thinking how the hell am I going to get a deal across the line before we run out of cash, because it won't be easy selling a capital raising to existing shareholders, let alone sophisticated investors if we don't.

    If they aren't dinkum they are sitting in that cocktail bar thinking, get me another margarita, doesn't matter the shareholders are paying and by the way isn't that waitress cute.

    If you people gives thumbs up to closing the gap and the market is always right, you deserve to be driven into the ground by the Chinese.

  23. AverageJoe

    6,286 posts.

    Bouhr,

    Get real and stop comparing speckies with REAL producers. If you held before the Hanlong deal, at least you had the pleasure of planning what you could have spent. We have all been there. Continue to hold and expecting another Hanlong player to come along is investing on hope.

    Plenty of opportunities elsewhere.

  24. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    Hi AJ what brings you up so early.

    Imparting your wisdom about the IO price trend and how China is going to have a massive hard landing, crash and burn with ghost cities sprouting across the country as you have been tirelessly doing on the FMG thread for a long time.

    Did you not suggest IO should crash by now say $50/t back when the AUD was about $1.10. That would be around $AUD 40 /t. Can't see how RIO can avoid a loss (share price probably down to $5 rather than $50+) as IO is the only profitable part of the business.

    You care to review those matter of fact forecast of yours on the FMG thread.

    Well IO spot price is closer to $AUD 160 /t

    That's a $AUD 120 difference.

    Good on you.

  25. taboon

    3,855 posts.

    SilentO you seriously haven't got a clue...lol

  26. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    Taboon one can be forgiven for concluding that our friend is trolling the thread for trolling sakes.

    He is definitely not ramping. Don't think he has any agenda. The same cannot be said of others as you know.

    Silento is in all likelihood traumatised by his beloved GBG and hope SDL will keep GBG in good company. But it ain't gonna happen.

    My party gear is still unwrapped after the 48 hour timeline passed uneventfully.

  27. AverageJoe

    6,286 posts.

    747,

    I just look at the chart. Predicting where IO price I leave to the experts and analyst. I did say that I respect FMG's latest rally and I reckon there is some more upside there from my post this week.

    However I keep reading here how Mbalam is such a strategic asset etc and I get the impression that people are just trying to convince themselves that this is the only sector or company worth putting everything into. The truth is nobody know where anything is heading to. They think by doing "research" they have a better insight than the rest. I used to be a U bull and diversifying was to buy lots of U companies. Missed the gold run. I also used to be an IO bull and missed exposure to other sectors.

    Good luck.

  28. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    No worries AJ.

    I was sincere when I told you on the FMG thread that I knew the Iron Ore price crash was a one-off. It would appear the much talked about "averge" floor of $120/T roughly matching China's domestic (30% of all IO consumed) production cost is valid.

    Notwithstanding that china can hit a rough patch, but for IO price to get to $US 70 (et alone $US 50/T) means China must be in a serious recession (depression) as indutrialization, urbanization, manufactiring and infrastructure spending comes to a ginding halt.

    Now, that's not to say that the chinese can't hold their breathe and go into a buying binch then followed by a buyer strike that can momentariy take the price to those level's again.

    But as the chinese have learnt, it's pointless. It scare sheetless all the IO producers worldwide (take AMCI-Aquila IO JV as an example of a 40MTA 2015 supply gone up in smoke thanks to china's act of horror).

    For the face saving chinese, the last thing they need is a price crash (more jitters) to soon followed by the mother of all IO price rallies (then dishing more abuse and attack at the big3).

    Mbalam's strategic value will soon be revealed to all as per the tender outcome of the asset owership and JV competition.

  29. AverageJoe

    6,286 posts.

    Recent experiences when the masses including the experts/analysts are shouting about a certain event, things tends to move in the opposite direction.

    Not so long ago like beginning of the year, plenty of voices were predicting $2,000 gold price and some even $3,000. I was skeptical then but having exposure in the sector I was not complaining. Likewise the fiscal cliff at the turn of this year was the highly anticipated event when the DOW was 'expected' to correct taking other bourses with it. Here we are talking about the 'imminent' collapse in the IO price in Sept. Seems if you use contrarian investing method you are having a better guess.

    However any continued rally especially with IO stocks I am expecting a dip since nothing goes up in a straight line. And we saw that in FMG this week back down to the support. Who knows where this will go but taking calculated risk is all about investing/trading. I suspect the days of just buying and taking a dogmatic view is all over and proactively assessing your position is the flavor of the month.

  30. SilentO

    777 posts.

    Not traumatised, confident. Company loading ships, premium product on the way. Current rising IO price means something, more dollars in the bank.

    IO price for SDL is meaningless, just the subject for pompous and annoying banter in the SDL chat room.

    Taboon I must have hit a nerve with you. You could line up all the chartists in the world and they still couldn't help SDL. Why don't you enlighten us with your wisdom?


    Directors need to ink the finishing touches to the mine JV and release it. Don't worry I'll have the last laugh come pay day on GBG and SDL.

    Matt learn to read and get your party cloths ready. I'll start buying soon in preparation for the popping of those champagne corks.

    44 days to go and counting.

    P.S. This is not investment advice, it is my opinion only. Do not rely on any of it. Please do your own research or seek professional advice to suit your specific investment needs before making any investment decision.

  31. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    ....confident. Company loading ships, premium product on the way. Current rising IO price means something, more dollars in the bank.....

    Keep up the work at the GBG thread. No one here will buy GBG. Try the Billabong thread or something.

    It's not fair that you aren't pulling the weight at the GBG thread and I am doing more heavy lifting.

    So how did you get from 48 hours to 44 days ?

    I hope you won't change your mind again or my champagne will go flat.


  32. SilentO

    777 posts.

    never was 48 hours, copy of my original post below. R e a d m o r e s l o w l y a n d y o u m i g h t c o m p r e h e n d

    "Matt,

    I'm no ramper. If you are interested I have already posted my exit strategy for GBG. Must be able to demonstrate free cash flow by April 2014 quarterly or I'm out. In the mean time I'm a buyer up to 18 cents and continue to average down to get my average below 18 cents. Average at the moment 23.6 cents.

    With SDL, as mentioned already, I'll start buying in a few weeks time and sell at the end of October if no deal on mine is announced by then.

    Don't know what happened today with the SDL SP. Maybe the market consensus is that a deal is imminent?

    Deal within 48 days and counting IMO.

    Don't you love count downs.

    P.S. This is not investment advice, it is my opinion only. Do not rely on any of it. Please do your own research or seek professional advice to suit your specific investment needs before making any investment decision."

  33. Matt747

    10,334 posts.

    SilentO, as you can see I don't read your stuff usually after the first sentence because it's incoherent (no offence).

    I know you are not a ramper.

    GBG can't be ramped up. It needs some serious prayers.

    Well, I am going to pounce on a coal stock that will be a multi-bagger within 3 months (I reckon - no guarantee). I haven't been posting there so don't bother lookin.

    Will let you know once I am in.

    I'll do anything for a GBG buddy.

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